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Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -14.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Clem 35 – GT 20.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 32% rain / 9 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric Singleton ($4,700) Has there been a better freshman receiver in all of college football than Singleton? 80 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games, while finding the end-zone in six of eight games played. And still only $4.7k. WR1s have had some level of success against this Tigers’ secondary as well with five different receivers scoring 17 or more fantasy points against them.
Fade – RBs. You look at the box scores and the tandem of Jamal Haynes and Dontae Smith have been on an absolute tear in the last several games. Let’s look at the defenses faced in that stretch and where they rank in the ACC standings. Virginia – 13th. North Carolina – 9th. Boston College – 12th. In Week 6 vs. the number one ranked defense in the conference – Miami, Georgia Tech had just 104 yards on the ground, 51 of which came from the quarterback. Clemson is 3rd in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground and 12th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $4.5k.
Pivot Play – QB Haynes King ($8,800) Won’t have much exposure here given the price tag and matchup, as Clemson allows only 14.9 FPPG to quarterbacks. Jordan Travis and Riley Leonard are the only quarterbacks to surpass 16 fantasy points against the Tigers this season. Working in King’s favor here is the running ability as both Leonard and Travis had rushing touchdowns in their respective matchups, with the Duke QB rushing for 98 yards on eight carries. King has been too good this season to doubt him, scoring 30 or more fantasy points six times with a season-low of 18 fantasy points. That’s a solid floor to work with.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Rutherford ($5,000) Rutherford leads the team with 37 receptions on 56 targets with the most routes run among GT receivers. That said, he needs mass volume with a 7.2 aDOT and 6.2 targets per game with a 66.1% catch rate is not high-volume.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($5,700) IF by chance Will Shipley is out, Mafah is the top play on the slate not named Ollie Gordon. If Shipley playing means less ownership for Mafah, even better in this advantageous matchup with a Georgia Tech defense that ranks 101st in rush D success rate and allowing 20.4 FPPG to RB1s. The quote from HC Dabo Swinney this week about his RB room stands out to me – “Phil got hot last week; we are going to make sure he has a chance to stay hot. Don’t get amnesia, we won a lot of games because of Will Shipley. And he’ll remind you real quick. But Phil definitely earned an opportunity to see if he can stay hot.” That sounds a lot like Phil Mafah will get the start on Saturday.
Fade – WR Beaux Collins ($5,200) I think we’re coming to the end of the line for Collins in a Clemson uniform, or at least as a starter as the season winds down. Ran the second most routes of any Clemson pass-catcher last week against Notre Dame, but minimal production yet again, and yet another drop.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,200) Quiet day for Briningstool last week with two receptions on four targets, but nobody has a productive week when the team only throws for 109 passing yards. Georgia Tech has allowed just one tight end to score more than 10 fantasy points against them (Bryson Nesbit). Still like the TE1 as a potential option here as he’s trending up in the last month with 20 of his 33 receptions coming in the last four games.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) Will we see one Cade Klubnik heater before the season concludes? Saturday is his best shot, facing a Georgia Tech secondary that is allowing 24.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – 12th most in the country. The fact that GT is also projected to score around three touchdowns this weekend means we likely won’t see Clemson just ground and pound their way to victory.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyler Brown ($5,000) The freshman slot receiver found the end-zone against Notre Dame on his lone target, running the third-most routes among Clemson wideouts. Georgia Tech has really struggled defending slot receivers this season. Malik Washington, Xavier Restrepo, Finn Hogan and Jordan Watkins all surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Yellow Jackets. WR Troy Stellato ($4,500) has taken over the starting outside spot from Adam Randall and has been the most-targeted Clemson receiver over the last two weeks with 10 receptions on 14 targets.
Injury Notes – RB Will Shipley ($5,900) All signs point to Will Shipley playing on Saturday, though we’re not expecting a full workload coming back from concussion. His availability pertains more to Mafah.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -3.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: KU 33 – TT 29.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,700) Brooks has been Tech’s top play for two months now and no reason to shy away from that. 100+ rushing yards in six of the last seven games with exactly 31 rushing attempts in three of the last four. So, it’s a matter of how good a play Brooks is with this Kansas defense. Numbers would suggest…pretty damn good matchup. The Jayhawks rank 125th in EPA per rush play defensively and giving up 20.8 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,300) Did Bradley sleep with Behren Morton’s girlfriend or something, because the junior receiver simply doesn’t get targeted in this offense when Morton is under center. 38 targets for Bradley in the month of September. 23 targets in the five games since, with less than 25 receiving yards in four of the five. Remember last year when Bradley did close the year with three touchdowns in the last three games, but there’s no evidence at this moment to support starting Bradley at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,800) Priced up this week, but not by much. Eakin has been Tech’s best receiver of late, coming off a season-high eight receptions on eight targets against TCU.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($7,100) Most will be on Brooks, and rightfully so, but we saw the extreme upside of the sophomore quarterback last week in his first game back from injury, throwing for 282 yards and three total touchdowns in the win over TCU. Kansas doesn’t grade out well vs. the pass either, ranking 125th in pass D success rate and 22.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I can envision stacking both Brooks and Morton together in a game stack with Kansas on the other side with this 60.5-point game total.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier White ($3,900) Late season surge from White over the last three games with 11 receptions on 16 targets in that span. Noticeable uptick in playing time as well, despite splitting snaps in the slot with Myles Price. 25 routes run in each of the last two games, good for fourth most among Tech wideouts.
Injury Notes – TE Mason Tharp ($3,700) Confirmed out this week.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,100) Feels like a broken record suggesting Devin Neal as KU’s best fantasy asset, but the junior back is getting the job done weekly, hitting 20 or more fantasy points in three of the last four. Neal has also matched his season-long total from a year ago with 21 receptions on 27 targets with three games to play so his passing game usage is up. This is not a matchup you need to jam Neal into your lineups, though, with Tech allowing just 14.6 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,100) Tight spread facing a good run defense means we’re not going to be interested in KU’s backup. 21-9 carry advantage in favor of Neal last week against Iowa State.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,000) Texas Tech is allowing the ninth most fantasy points in college football to tight ends in 2023. Five tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Red Raiders. Fairchild is second on the team in routes run in 2023 and tied for third in targets.
Pivot Play – QB Jason Bean ($7,400) I’d assume it is because of the limited depth behind Bean now that Jalon Daniels is likely out for the season, but still surprising to see that KU is not utilizing Bean’s rushing ability at all despite being one of the best athletes on the team. Makes sense from the coaching perspective as you can’t lose Bean to injury, but also diminishes a lot of his fantasy value. That said, Tech is below average on the backend, ranked 81st in pass D success rate and allowing 23.7 FPPG to quarterbacks – 19th most in the country.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Analyzing Kansas receiver production is the bane of my existence because the targets are equally dispersed and rarely if ever are any of them fantasy difference makers. Lawrence Arnold leads the team by a healthy margin in routes run, targets (40) and receptions (31), coming off his best performance of the season with 112 yards and a score vs. Iowa State. Quentin Skinner has over 200 receiving yards combined over the last three weeks with almost a 30.0 YPC average. Jason Bean and the receivers discussed this week how the group is building rapport with one another with more experience.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,400) Daniels is considered questionable this week, but I don’t anticipate seeing him again in a Jayhawk uniform.
Michigan vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: UM -4.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UM 25 – PSU 20.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 11 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.