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Florida vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -14.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: LSU 40.5 – UF 26
Weather: 64 degrees / 56% rain / 7 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,300) Star in the making, if not already one. The 5-star freshman has been outstanding the last month of the season with 33 receptions and four touchdowns in the last four games with an 88.2% catch rate. Neither Wilson or fellow receiver WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,700) are all that expensive, so I don’t mind stacking the two together in a lineup for what should one of the higher scoring games of the weekend. The LSU secondary has been cooked at times by opposing wide receivers, with seven wideouts scoring 17 or more fantasy points against the Tigers this season. The duo combined for 18 targets and three scores last week in a similar game script vs. Arkansas.
Fade – RBs. Here’s where I stand on the Florida RB situation. Neither Montrell Johnson nor Trevor Etienne are a full fade as the Gators should find success against an LSU defense that is 108th in rush D success rate. But is either player going to win you a GPP with a 50-50 split in the backfield? No upside to this situation unless Florida dominates (unlikely) or someone gets injured.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,700) or TE Arlis Boardingham ($4,100) Arguments to be made for both players. Jackson plays the entirety of the game on offense as Florida doesn’t rotate receivers and was targeted eight times vs. Arkansas. Boardingham will be one of the better tight ends in the country this time next year, as he’s been targeted seven times in three of the last four games. LSU allows the second most fantasy points (11.0) to TE1s in the country behind only Michigan State.
Pivot Play – QB Graham Mertz ($7,100) High game total facing a terrible secondary – Mertz is absolutely in play. LSU allows 24.1 FPPG to quarterbacks and 98th in pass D success rate. I’ll play Mertz in all types of lineup combinations, pairing him with his WRs or stacking this potential shootout.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Listed all of the primary Florida contributors above.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($10,300) It was always likely that Daniels would play Saturday, in my opinion at least, as he’s still with an outside shot at winning the Heisman despite losing last week to Alabama. Wasn’t his fault that the defense allowed Jalen Milroe to run all over the field. How much Daniels runs this week will be the big question, and the hope is that he’ll have the same effectiveness after seeing what KJ Jefferson did to the Gators on the ground a week ago.
Fade – n/a. All the major contributors listed are potential options.
Bargain Bin – RB Josh Williams ($3,800) Williams likely gets the start in place of the injured Logan Diggs, with some of John Emery Jr. ($4,600) mixed in. Williams had a 4-1 carry advantage last week against the Tide while also finding the end-zone. I’d hoped that stud freshman RB Kaleb Jackson ($3,000) would see additional work, and maybe still could as he’s played more than four games this season so sitting him for a redshirt is out of the question. Beat writer for The Advocate only listed Williams and Emery Jr. as the replacements in the game previous, though.
Pivot Play – WR Kyren Lacy ($4,800) No starting running back and a potentially limited Jayden Daniels (at least on the ground) could lead to an aerial assault on Saturday night. LSU doesn’t rotate much beyond the top three receivers, and Lacy has caught a touchdown now in two of the last three games.
Best of the Rest – WRs Malik Nabers ($9,100) and / or Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,700) We know the drill by now here. Nabers has been quite literally unstoppable since the opening week of the season with six 100-yard receiving performances and 10 touchdowns. Thomas is the curious case as he’s looked more like the 2022 version in the last few weeks. Amount of playing time hasn’t changed so he remains an option as well. Beat writers for LSU have predicted big games for both players, but the Florida secondary hasn’t allow much via the way of fantasy points this season. Just two receivers scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Gators.
Injury Notes – RB Logan Diggs ($6,200) Diggs was in a non-contact jersey all week in practice and downgraded to doubtful on Thursday.
Mississippi vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -10.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UGA 34.5 – Miss 24
Weather: 54 degrees / 54% rain / 8 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($6,600) Harris is the success story of G5 transfers succeeding at the P5 level (horror story below). Team highs in receptions, targets, and touchdowns (7) this season for the former Louisiana Tech transfer who was targeted a season-high 14 times last week against A&M. With Zakhari Franklin benched and a somewhat limited Jordan Watkins, expect Ole Miss to force feed their best player on the outside. Trouble is the Georgia secondary that is 11th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Nobody will be on Tre Harris tonight, which makes him a strong GPP consideration.
Fade – WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,600) Franklin doesn’t have the injury tag on DraftKings but is questionable for Saturday night. Ole Miss beat writer stated he does think Franklin ultimately suits up for this week’s matchup but has seen a significant decline in playing time and didn’t see the field in either of the last two games. Remember when Franklin was a Top 10 fantasy receiver? Distant memory and test case for those G5 receivers about to hit the portal once the season concludes.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,600) The Ole Miss beat writer loves himself some Caden Prieskorn. He’ll give seven bold predictions each week, and I think the last 4-5 games he’s projected a massive performance from the former Memphis transfer. And if you look at the box scores, he’s been wrong every single time, lol. 100 yards and a touchdown was his bold prediction for Prieskorn this week. That won’t happen, but dare to dream kids.
Pivot Play – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,700) Is there a case to be made for Judkins in this spot? Difficult to play the star sophomore as the options in his price range have far better matchups. Not to mention Ole Miss will be without one of its starting offensive linemen tonight. While not the dominant group of year’s past, the Dawgs are still getting in done in the front seven, giving up just 11 FPPG to RB1s. Volume and ownership are the biggest arguments in favor of Judkins. 20+ carries on average over the last five games, finding the end-zone six times in that span.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Watkins ($5,400) Credit to Watkins who has played through a hand injury with a cast, yet still finding ways to be effective with 47 yards and a touchdown last week against A&M. While his snap counts haven’t changed, you will notice his targets have declined slightly, though, since the injury occurred. WR Dayton Wade ($5,200) is a Georgia native playing in front of family this week, and we love that narrative. Second on the team in targets (53) and receptions (40), and most routes run of any Ole Miss receiver. Not playing QB Jaxson Dart ($7,600) outside of a game stack with Georgia pieces on the other side. The Bulldogs allowed 15.5 FPPG to quarterbacks and wet/chilly conditions are expected.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 11 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.