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Louisville vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Lou -1.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Lou 24 – Mia 22.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 8% rain / 11 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,200) Can’t say I’ll have much exposure at all to any Louisville players as this Cardinals’ offense looks nothing like we expected under HC Jeff Brohm. And that’s not a bad thing…just look at their record. But from a fantasy standpoint, in this matchup specifically against the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC, there isn’t much appeal. The Hurricanes are allowing 14.1 FPPG to RB1s and are No. 8 nationally in rush D success rate. Jordan should be low owned at this price, though.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($8,700) Insanity for Plummer to be listed this high for a quarterback that has hit 17 or more fantasy points just twice all season. I do think Louisville will be forced to throw the ball more on Saturday for reasons listed above, but Plummer doesn’t warrant consideration at this pricing with just a 15-point projection. Miami has been much better against the run, but are still 50th in rush D success rate and allowing 15.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not selecting any Louisville players under $7k for my lineups.
Pivot Play – WR Jamari Thrash ($7,400) Quiet day from Thrash against UVA last week as he returned from the wrist injury but did play 40 of 63 offensive snaps which is in line with his normal workload prior to the injury. I’d imagine Thrash will have less than 5% ownership if looking for a high-upside GPP play. As mentioned above, UL will throw more than normal on Saturday we believe, and the Hurricanes are giving up 19.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s. It’s been a while since a breakout Thrash performance.
Best of the Rest – RB Isaac Guerendo ($6,500) Wanted to spotlight Guerendo here because I do believe our current 14.3-point projection is too high and reflective of what I expect on Saturday. Yes, he did find the end-zone with 94 yards rushing against UVA, but 73 of those came on just one run. With Jordan healthy, I expect this to look like the normal backfield splits we’ve seen the majority of the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacolby George ($5,500) George’s numbers last week are a bit deceiving as 85 of the 153 receiving yards did come on a fluke play late against FSU but has been the most consistent among the Miami receivers with eight targets in five of the last six contests. For as good as the Louisville pass defense has been, they will allow some big fantasy performances with four different wideouts scoring at least 18 fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,400) TVD is thrust back into the starting role after Emory Williams suffered a season-ending injury late last week against Florida State. It would be difficult to trust even the best of quarterbacks against one of the top secondaries in the country in Louisville, let alone one that just recently lost his starting job. Unless that benching lit a fire under TVD, I don’t see him succeeding against this Louisville defense that is giving up just 16.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Colbie Young ($4,300) Quarterback play has been the demise of the Miami receivers, as Young has failed to surpass 70 receiving yards in all but one game since Week 2. That said, playing time hasn’t diminished so Young is a cheap option at $4.3k as a receiver that plays over 66% of offensive snaps each week.
Pivot Play – RB Mark Fletcher Jr. ($6,100) For as much attention as the Louisville secondary receivers, the numbers suggest the Cardinals are better against the run, giving up just 11.5 FPPG to running backs and No. 1 nationally in EPA per run play defensively. But we know what Miami wants to attempt to do offensively under Mario Cristobal, and it would really be a mistake to let TVD attempt 35+ passes against this defense. The 4-star freshman averaged just 2.9 YPC last week, but led the team in carries each of the last two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,600) Remember when Restrepo was the best receiver in college fantasy for a two-week span. That was short lived, now with just 109 receiving yards over the last month, including a shutout against Florida State. Like the other Miami receivers, his playing time hasn’t been altered, and has been targeted at least five times in every game this season. The QB play is not up to par.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Utah -1.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Utah 24 – Ariz 22.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 55% rain / 10 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,300) Will Utah need to throw it 30 times this week in one of the lower game totals on the slate? Rain in the forecast could mean a slower-paced game which suits the playing style of Jackson, assuming he stays healthy which he’s seemingly yet to do in a game all year. The Wildcats have also been better than expected in the trenches this season, ranked 7th in EPA per rush play defensively, and giving up just 16 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Sione Vaki ($5,300) Major risk to play Vaki and probably doesn’t get more playing time on the offensive side of the ball unless Utah suffers an injury in the backfield (not uncommon with Ja’Quinden Jackson on the roster). Just seven offensive snaps last week against Washington, six of which in the passing game as Vaki had just one carry. To his credit, Vaki converted on all four of his targets for 67 yards and a TD, but this is too risky a play for my liking in a game where Utah is favored.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,400) The former Auburn transfer is the man now at tight end with Kuithe and Thomas Yassmin out for the season, with nine of his 13 season-long targets coming in the last two games. Arizona is allowing 6.0 FPPG to tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Devaughn Vele ($5,100) Late-season emergence from the junior receiver who’s always had the talent, but limited opportunities to catch the football in a run-based scheme. Nearly 50% of his 56 targets have come in the last three weeks alone, hitting a season-high 145 yards in the loss to Washington last week. The Wildcats allow just 15.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, but don’t grade out well in the secondary, ranking 78th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,200) Barnes is averaging 20.1 FPPG over the last five weeks and seems to be gaining confidence with each passing start. Two costly interceptions against Washington last week, though, and is fully capable of a clunker like we saw in Week 9 vs. Oregon with just 3.8 fantasy points scored. Arizona is holding quarterbacks to 3.76 fantasy points below their seasonal averages in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($6,800) Four wideouts have scored 22 or more fantasy points against the Utes this season, including last week where Washington’s Rome Odunze who went for 111 yards and two scores. McMillan is right on par talent-wise with anyone in the county (Marvin Harrison Jr. aside), as the 6-foot-5 sophomore is nearing his first 100-target season, now with 854 yards and eight touchdowns in his second year. Has scored a TD in each of the last three games, including a season high nine catches on 15 targets against Colorado last week.
Fade – RB Jonah Coleman ($5,000) See Pivot Play below. Some risk involved here against a Utah defense that allows just 12.9 FPPG to RB1s.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,900) McLachlan ranks third on the team in targets (39) and tied for 15th nationally among tight ends in receptions (31). Utah is allowing just 5.2 FPPG to tight ends this season, a strong mark considering this is the year of the Tight End in the Pac-12 with so many top fantasy options.
Pivot Play – RB Michael Wiley ($4,300) Most coaches say you can never lose a starting spot due to injury. Not the case at Arizona where Wiley has been relegated to RB2 since coming back from a foot injury, being mostly used on passing downs. Talk on the Arizona boards from the team beat writer said that Wiley could get the start on Saturday because of Senior Day festivities. The question then becomes, does he get a series and give way to Coleman at some point? Not sure it’ll matter that much against this Utah front, but something to keep in mind.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($6,800) Last week was the premier matchup with a terrible Colorado defense and Fifita underwhelmed, scoring just 20 fantasy points in the win. The sophomore QB is now priced up $800, facing a Utah defense that is allowing the 17th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks, and is a non-runner. I won’t have much exposure. WR Jacob Cowing ($6,700) has found the end-zone in each of the last two weeks but came out of last week’s contest in the second half due to injury. HC Jedd Fisch said that Cowing should be fine, but worth some monitoring. He’s a DraftKings option only in full-point PPR scoring, averaging just 7.8 yards per catch. He’ll cross the 100-target barrier for the third straight season on Saturday which is an impressive feat.
Injury Notes – n/a
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 12 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.