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Kansas State vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: K-St -9.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: K-St 33.5 – KU 24
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,000) One of my personal favorite players to watch this season, Giddens has a juicy matchup with a Kansas rush defense that is 112th in success rate and allowing 20.8 FPPG to RB1s. The Jayhawk defense has been better of late, holding both Iowa State and Texas Tech under four yards a carry in their respective matchups. Giddens’ added versatility as a pass-catcher is very intriguing if he can’t get the job done on the ground, now third on the team in receptions (27) and targets (33).
Fade – QB Avery Johnson ($7,400) It’s not totally over, but we’re seeing less and less of the quarterback rotation with the way Will Howard has performed of late. Just nine snaps last week for Johnson in the win over Baylor with one rushing attempt. And that was in a 34-point blowout.
Bargain Bin – WR Keagan Johnson ($3,900) It took some time, and injuries played a role, but we’re starting to see what was expected in the preseason from the Iowa transfer. 10 receptions on 14 targets over the last two games for Johnson, who has solidified his spot in the starting lineup the last two weeks, playing the second most snaps among wideouts behind Phillip Brooks.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($7,700) Short story – I bet under 27.5 passing touchdowns for Will Howard in the summer and was feeling great a few weeks ago. Not so much the case now as Howard is heating up with 12 passing touchdowns in the last four games, averaging 24 fantasy points in that span. Kansas is marginally better at defending the pass, but not by much, ranking 77th in EPA per pass play and allowing 20.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($5,000) Feels a bit too cheap here for a player that leads Kansas State in every receiving category. Five receptions in each of the last three games, a 73.1% catch rate without a drop in 2023. TE Ben Sinnott ($4,700) is reverting to form the last two weeks after catching just one pass in Week’s 8-9. 60 or more receiving yards in the last two games on 12 targets. Kansas allowed just two tight ends to score double digit fantasy points. RB Treshaun Ward ($5,300) is the clear RB2 behind Giddens but is still averaging between 9-13 touches per game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,000) Lean on your best player in times of desperation, right? Even with a backup quarterback, Neal had one of his best performances of the season with 137 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries against Texas Tech. Noticeable uptick in rushing volume the last three weeks as well, averaging 23 attempts per game. Just 13 carries per game on average in the seven weeks. The Wildcats are allowing just 14.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but Big 12 running backs have found quite a bit of success against K-State. Six different players have scored 15 fantasy points or more in their matchups with the Wildcats, and we know this KU staff can scheme offense with the best of em.
Fade – QB. Nebraska transfer Cole Ballard has seen the majority of first-team reps in practice this week according to the Kansas beat writer, but still up in the air as to who starts on Saturday. While he came in cold against Texas Tech last week, completing 9 of 20 passes with 5.96 fantasy points scored does not inspire much confidence. Still a good chance that Jason Bean starts on Saturday, but with minimal reps in practice this week, I’m tentative to start him against this Kansas State defense. I’d rather avoid entirely with the surplus of QBs available to us on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,000) Kansas State had been one of the best defenses in the country against the tight end position through 10 weeks. That evaporated after the performance against Baylor where the top two tight ends combined for 27 fantasy points, including 20 from starter Drake Dabney. Maybe an area for Mason Fairchild to exploit?
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,800) These plays on the KU side are dependent on what happens at quarterback, so it’s tough to forecast on a Friday night without knowing who is starting. KU leaned on the run game last week against Texas Tech, even in a trailing position, with Hishaw getting 13 rushing attempts. Have to imagine that workload looks similar if Ballard gets the nod.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Similar to Hishaw above, the viability of the Kansas receivers is dependent on who gets the nod at quarterback. No need to incorporate a ton of analysis here as the top trio of Lawrence Arnold, Luke Grimm and Quentin Skinner are separated by just seven targets on the season with seven of the team’s 15 receiving touchdowns. Boundary receivers have had the most success against the Wildcats, making up four of the top five fantasy scorers, which lends to favoring either Arnold or Skinner in this situation. But not a priority by any means.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation.
Washington vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: OSU -1.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: OSU 32 – UW 30.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 98% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Dillon Johnson ($7,200) The Huskies are riding their horse this second half of the season, as Johnson now has 18 or more carries in four of the last five games. If the Mississippi State transfer can run for 100+ and a touchdown against Utah, he damn well can against this Oregon State defense that is very ordinary against the run, ranking 91st in rush D success rate and 70th in EPA per run play. 26 rushing attempts went to Washington running backs last week – 23 went to Johnson. And that’s been the story for the last month and a half.
Fade – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,500) The word from the coaching staff and Washington beat writers is that McMillan will see more playing time than the six offensive snaps he got against Utah last week. The question is…is that 10 more snaps? 20 more snaps? There’s enough talent on the Washington roster at receiver that the Huskies can bring McMillan along at his own pace, so I won’t be risking the star receiver in either cash or GPPs.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($3,800) Oregon State is 119th in pass attempts allowed per game, so expect the Huskies to still be throwing the ball even in rainy conditions. Westover had a season-high seven receptions on seven targets last week against the Utes in a high-possession game. Oregon State is allowing 8.4 FPPG to opposing TE1s with four tight ends scoring 11 fantasy points or more against them.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($4,300) We spoke on McMillan above. If the coaching staff is being facetious about his actual status, then Bernard does stand to benefit as the team’s WR3. Had his second-best performance of the season last week with 6-63-0 on seven targets, seeing the most offensive snaps of the season.
Best of the Rest – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,500) If I had two spots to fade from the Washington offense, this would be the second. Simply put, if you’re spending up on one quarterback option, Jayden Daniels and his 52.5-point implied team total is the easy selection. A 25-point projection for a non-running quarterback in pouring rain doesn’t make a ton of sense. Not much more I can add about WR Rome Odunze ($8,500) or WR Ja’Lynn Polk ($7,900) that hasn’t already been written to this point. Would just add that with McMillan potentially seeing more playing time + weather conditions, it would not be advisable to stack the two together.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 12 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.