theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.
Rutgers vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Rutg -2.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Rutg 22 – Mia 19.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 35% rain / 9 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($5,400) Monangai announced earlier this month that he’d be returning to the Scarlet Knights in 2024 after becoming one of the bigger surprises of the college football season. Not even expected to be the starter entering the year, the junior running back ran for 1,100 yards on the ground, finishing 18th nationally in attempts per game (18.3). Miami was solid against the run, allowing just 14 FPPG to RB1s and 19th in rush D success rate, so Monangai is not a smash play, but the volume will be there. The Canes will be without at least four regular contributors on the defensive side of the ball.
Fade – QB Gavin Wimsatt ($6,200) Six quarterbacks on the slate. Wimsatt has the lowest projection, lowest upside, and lowest floor. As of Wednesday writing this, Rutgers remains the slight betting favorite. When Rutgers has/gets a lead, they’ll pound away with Monangai and the running game. Week 3 in a blowout win vs. Virginia Tech is perfect evidence of this where Wimsatt attempted just 16 passes. Wimsatt is a fade in all DFS formats.
Bargain Bin – TE Shawn Bowman ($3,100) Bowman played over 90% of the offensive snaps in the season finale vs. Maryland and caught three passes on four targets. TE Johnny Langan did not play in that contest, and it appears he’s played his final collegiate snap based on a few articles out there. Seems like Langan will not play on Thursday.
Pivot Play – n/a. We’re already giving Rutgers players not named Kyle Monangai more attention than they deserve.
Best of the Rest – WRs. One Rutgers receiver maximum in a GPP lineup, nothing more, as the Scarlet Knights are 125th in pass play percentage. If Vegas is correct, I doubt Rutgers puts the ball in the air more than 25 times on Thursday, and Wimsatt completes just 48% of his passes as it is. Christian Dremel and Isaiah Washington led all Rutgers wideouts in routes run by a significant margin.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Evan Simon (transfer), WR Rashad Rochelle (transfer), RB Aaron Young (transfer), TE Johnny Langan (injury)
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacolby George ($5,300) Minimal interest on the Miami side in a game where the Canes will be down 15 regular contributors, including two along the offensive line and starting quarterback, along with playing in a cold weather atmosphere. George has been Miami’s most consistent receiving option the last month and a half with at least seven targets in seven of the last eight games. His athleticism could give this Rutgers secondary some trouble.
Fade – RB Ajay Allen ($5,000) Allen looked good in the season finale vs. Boston College, but his reps came in the second half with the game already out of hand. RB Mark Fletcher ($5,700) and RB Henry Parrish Jr. ($5,300) received all the reps with the starters in the first half. While Miami will ride the hot hand in the backfield, Allen is RB3 or RB4, and not worth considering at this salary. The Canes will also be down two starters along the offensive line, so they may struggle running the football regardless of who lines up in the backfield. Rutgers is a good, but not great run defense, allowing 15.4 FPPG to RB1s and 123rd in rush D success rate, so it’s not impossible for someone finds some running room.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Horton ($4,000) Horton caught more than one pass in a game just once this season but is expected to step into a starting role on Thursday with Colbie Young headed to Georgia via the transfer portal. Realistically, aside from Jacolby George and Xavier Restrepo, the Miami WR corps will be a mystery as the Canes have several 4-star freshmen available to play as well. Or maybe Tyler Harrell does something notable? Anything is possible during bowl szn.
Pivot Play – QB Jacurri Brown ($6,400) Simply put, I think there are four better QB options on the slate, with more experience and playing in better weather conditions. But…Brown can run, which is intriguing, as he accumulated over 4,000 yards on the ground during his high school career. Against Georgia Tech last season, Brown threw for three touchdowns while rushing for 87 yards on 19 attempts. An audition of sorts for Brown’s opportunity at QB1 for the Canes in 2024, though seems like Cam Ward’s impending arrival in Miami will happen any day now.
Best of the Rest –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.