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Clemson vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: Clem -4.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Clem 24.5 – UK 20
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Brown ($5,600) I don’t believe Clemson will be able to just sit back and run the football on this Wildcats defense + the 50-50 split in the Tigers’ backfield puts a ceiling on Will Shipley and Phil Mafah’s fantasy value. Brown has been the team’s most consistent pass-catcher in 2023 and had a strong close to the year with 18 receptions on 23 targets in the final three weeks. Antonio Williams possibly returning for this bowl game is the concern as both play the slot position. Kentucky allowed just 15.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s during the regular season.
Fade – WR Troy Stellato ($4,300) Points will be at a premium in this matchup, and if I’m selecting a Clemson receiver for the slate, I’m either spending up to Brown or going cheap with Adam Randall at min pricing. Stellato has been getting starter reps since Week 5 vs. Syracuse but has been held to under 30 yards receiving in six of the last eight games.
Bargain Bin – WR Adam Randall ($3,100) Production hasn’t been there, but Randall has played over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two games and should increase with Beaux Collins no longer on the team.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,500) I’ve listed Briningstool as a Clemson option in practically every writeup and has continually failed us, scoring 15 or more fantasy points just twice all season. Fact is the 6-foot-6 junior tight end was not the impact player we thought he’d be coming into this year. Friday presents an opportunity to change that after Briningstool confirmed he would play vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats allow the most fantasy points to tight ends among teams playing in bowl games. Four different tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points on UK this season, including 26 points from Brock Bowers. To quote the Clemson beat writer covering Clemson bowl practices – “it wouldn’t surprise me if the tight ends got a lot of work in the bowl game.”
Best of the Rest – RB Will Shipley ($6,000) or RB Phil Mafah ($5,800) One or the other, with the slight edge towards the former is far more of a factor in the passing game with 14 targets in the last four games alone. The strength of this slate is the RB position so I would not feel the need to roster either player given the near 50-50 split in volume, combined with the fact the Kentucky front seven is the strength of the defense. The Wildcats held opposing RB1s to just 13 FPPG this season and are 21st in EPA per run play defensively. QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) did not have the season we expected him to have under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, but much of which was due to a severely underwhelming group of pass-catchers. There are limited QB options on the slate and Kentucky finished 123rd in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Beaux Collins (transfer)
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($7,600) Davis gets top billing by default only and I do not feel confident in rostering him. He’s already committed to the Senior Bowl (soft-out possibility), Clemson is a favorite, Kentucky will have two starting OL out for this game, and the Tigers run defense limited RB1s to just 14 FPPG. Davis’ saving grace for his fantasy value will be his enhanced ability he’s shown in the passing game with 28 receptions on 35 targets with seven receiving touchdowns.
Fade – TEs. No official depth chart, and the top four of Jordan Dingle, Josh Kattus, Brenden Bates and Khamari Anderson combined for just 24 receptions this season. Dingle and Kattus both missed the season finale due to injury, and Dingle announced his return to UK after previously entering the transfer portal. Too much uncertainty here and not enough production to even care. WR Tayvion Robinson ($4,600) is a likely fade too here as he declared for the NFL Draft. Not officially out, as he was partaking in bowl practices, but production wasn’t enough this season to warrant consideration.
Bargain Bin – WR Anthony Brown-Stephens ($3,000) An extreme longshot that will likely not be worth the risk, but ABS could get the starting nod should Tayvion Robinson not play on Friday. Just five receptions on 14 targets for the true freshman in 2023.
Pivot Play –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.