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Mississippi vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -4.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: PSU 27 – Miss 22.5
Weather: Dome
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($6,900) Penn State will be without its best cover corner in the secondary in Kalen King, which bodes well for a healthy Tre Harris on a slate where receiver options are few and far in between. Team leader in targets (74) with 35% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Bigger boundary receivers gave the Penn State secondary the most fits this season with Marvin Harrison Jr., Devin Carter, and Donaven McCulley three of the highest scoring fantasy producers to face the Nittany Lions. Harris fits a similar size profile.
Fade – WR Zakhari Franklin ($6,700) DK continues to price Franklin as if he still plays for UTSA. On the depth chart but likely to leave Ole Miss after the season and enter the portal as he’s only played in three games.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,800) Cheapest realistic Ole Miss option. The former Memphis transfer closed the year with two of his best performances of the season with a combined 10 receptions on 11 targets with touchdowns against both ULM and Mississippi State. Penn State allowed just 5.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Pivot Play – Fading RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,500) Feels sacrilegious to say fade a two-time 1,000-yard rusher like Quinshon, but this is a bad matchup against a Penn State defense that finished No. 1 nationally in rush D success rate and allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. Judkins was also asked about his future by reporters this week, and was seemingly non-committal with his answer, saying he’s just focused on the bowl game. Is there something we don’t know about?
Best of the Rest – WRs. Team target share reflects what we stated about avoiding youth/backups on the depth chart. Top three of Harris, Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins combined for 60% of the target share and 15 of the 23 receiving touchdowns. Would limit to just one Ole Miss wideout in a lineup as Penn State allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the country. RB Ulysses Bentley ($4,900) only becomes an option if we see/read any funny business with Judkins in pregame. QB Jaxson Dart ($9,000) is the second option among QBs on the slate behind Carson Beck for me. Penn State allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in the country, but Dart has his full compliment of weapons at WR and plenty of mobility.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – TE Michael Trigg (transfer), WR JJ Henry (transfer), WR Bralon Brown (transfer)
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($6,000) or RB Nick Singleton ($6,400) If there is a weakness on the Ole Miss defense, it would be the front seven – hence why the Rebel donors threw the bag at Texas A&M defensive tackle transfer Walter Nolen. Ole Miss allowed 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 84th in EPA per run play defensively. The problem is guessing which Penn State RB will be the preferred choice that day…and yes, it is a guessing game. Singleton has the higher projection, but Vegas odds have a higher prop line for Allen, who has also out-carried Singleton over the last six games. Don’t stack the two together.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($4,600) Most recent Penn State practice report on Wednesday had both Cephas and fellow transfer Malik McClain working with the third-team offense. I’m betting unders on any player props out there and insta-fades in DFS.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaden Saunders ($3,400) The 4-star freshman was running with the first-team offense in the last bowl practice available to observers. TE Tyler Warren ($4,200) is the preferred choice at tight end over TE Theo Johnson ($4,400) with a few articles out on the web with quotes from Johnson discussing how he’s excited to see how the younger tight ends on the roster will perform in this bowl game. Sounds like a potential soft-out to me. Johnson heads to the NFL after this game while Warren is returning in 2024.
Pivot Play –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.