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Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK St -7.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: OK St 35 – Ark 27.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($7,500) Arkansas played in the most lopsided game of Week 1, so we cannot rush to many/any judgements under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Green did look good though against an overmatched opponent, accounting for 300 total yards of offense and four touchdowns in the first two quarters. That’s also without his top option at receiver. Green will be featured in several of my lineups with his ability to scamper in the ground game.
Fade – WR Isaiah Sategna ($5,200) We’ll find out the true rotations for the wide receivers on Saturday in a competitive game. Sategna got some positive pub all through the offseason and was a listed starter in the slot but was targeted just a single time and gave way to last year’s boundary starter WR Isaac TeSlaa ($5,000) who was far more productive during his time on the field. OC Bobby Petrino said he wanted to find ways to utilize the 6-foot-3 receiver in the slot. Seems like that’s coming at the expense of Sategna.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,300) Hasz was a perfect 3-of-3 on targets directed his way for 42 yards in his return from injury. Too cheap a price for a top 10 tight end in the country.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,200) That was the JQJ we expected last year at Utah. Even with battling an ankle injury in fall camp, the same one that hampered him a year ago, Jackson averaged 12.6 YPC on eight attempts with two touchdowns in the victory. Oklahoma State faced a similar offense to Arkansas last week and allowed close to 4.5 yards per carry for the game.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyrone Broden ($5,400) The former Bowling Green transfer led the team in targets (7) and tied for the team lead in routes run. Not surprising that his 17.5 aDOT led the team as Arkansas’ big-play threat on offense. WR Jordan Anthony ($4,000) is an option only if Andrew Armstrong is out. If Armstrong is in uniform, we’re only looking at Broden and Hasz at pass-catching options for the Razorbacks. Anthony was effective as a starter with three catches on five targets.
Injury Notes – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,400) Armstrong posted a photo on social media of a cartoon character trapped in ice and “coming back to life.” Does that mean he makes his debut on the field? TBD.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,600) The 3.9 YPC average against South Dakota State is a bit concerning considering Oklahoma State does bring back all five starters on the OL. What’s not concerning is the production – 104 yards and two scores – along with the rushing volume with 27 attempts. No other RB had more than five carries. Same story different year in the Oklahoma State backfield.
Fade – Backups. Barring injury, this is going to be the same fade suggestion for Oklahoma State every time they’re on the slate. There was minimal rotation with the backups despite playing an overmatched FCS opponent. There will be less rotation against an SEC defense.
Bargain Bin – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,800) Will be one of the more sought after, cost-saving options at the WR position this week. I thought initially the target share would be centered around two options. I did not realize one of those two would be Stribling who went for 6-83-0 on eight targets. All three Oklahoma State receivers are in play.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($8,400) The salary is a bit much here for a quarterback that doesn’t run, but we like the game total where OSU is expected to score close to five touchdowns. High floor / low ceiling play with Bowman.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($7,000) and / or Rashod Owens ($5,400) Both are in play, both as a stacking together, with Stribling, or as solo plays. All cards are on the table here because of the centralized target share. The trio accounted for 22 of the 32 targets with the next closest player being Ollie Gordon.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: Tex -7.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Tex 25 – UM 17.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 14% rain / 14 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – Jaydon Blue ($6,800) There really is no great DFS play in this matchup in a game that’s likely to be more fun to watch as a viewer. Blue gets top billing here with a relatively strong projection and median salary as the Longhorns will likely increase his reps this week in a game where the RB1 is needed. That wasn’t the case last week, resulting in just a handful of touches. The only issue is trying to gain traction vs. the best defensive tackle pairing in the country.
Fade – WR Silas Bolden ($5,800) Bolden did find the end-zone against Colorado State last week…. with Arch Manning throwing him the football. The Oregon State transfer was a summer enrollee, so must believe there is an acclimation period still happening here. Ran the fifth most routes among Texas receivers last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($4,000) Two things are clear coming out of the Colorado State game regarding the tight end position. (1) Helm is way ahead of Amari NiBlack in the pecking order, running the most routes of any player on the Texas team last week. (2) The Longhorns do not have Ja’Tavion Sanders this season. Helm did play a ton, though, and was targeted three times.
Pivot Play – WR Matthew Golden ($5,000) The Houston transfer ran the second most routes of any Texas receiver last week, targeted four times with two touchdowns. Michigan does have Will Johnson on one side of the field who will likely follow around WR Isaiah Bond ($6,800) at all times. The Wolverines have some question marks on the other side of the field, as the CB2 allowed six receptions on eight targets last week to Fresno State’s WR2. I like the usage of Golden last week and the matchup as an under-the-radar play.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($9,000) I had a friend text me his thoughts after the Texas game last week. “Texas wins the national championship if…Michigan injures Quinn Ewers.” That speaks to how good Arch Manning looked in garbage time. We cannot advocate Ewers with this bloated salary against a top three defense in college football. WR Johntay Cook ($4,600) ran the third most routes among receivers last week with three targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 2 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.