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Washington State vs. Fresno State
Point-Spread: WSU -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: WSU 32 – Fres St 28.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB John Mateer ($10,400) Our No. 1 ranked player on the night slate and No. 3 player overall in college fantasy for the week. Will sound like a broken record here, but there’s not a lot of paths for Mateer to not hit value aside from injury. Fresno State stacks the box and Wazzu chucks it around, ranked 18th in yards per game through the air. Fresno plays prevent and Mateer will get ya on the ground, averaging 18 carries per game over the last month. The Bulldogs are 61st in pass D success rate and only giving up 20.4 FPPG to opposing QBs, but they’ve been dominated the last two games, allowing 60 combined points to Hajj Malik-Williams and Devon Dampier.
Fade – RB Leo Pulalasi ($3,500) Only received carries in garbage time last week vs. Boise State. This is RB Wayshawn Parker’s ($4,800) job. With that said, the Fresno State defense is above average against the run, allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing backfields with one running back scoring over 11 fantasy points all season. That was New Mexico’s Javen Jacobs who only had 41 yards on the ground and was aided by six receptions. This is a good Fresno State run defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,000) The sophomore receiver is expected to make his season debut this week and was arguably the team’s top performer in spring / fall camp. Big risk any time a player returns from injury in his first game back, but Hernandez is a talented enough player to consider.
Pivot Play – TE Cooper Mathers ($3,500) All Mathers does is catch touchdowns. Three receptions, three scores. Playing time has steadily increased over the last three weeks, playing over 60% of the offensive snaps and all four of his targets have come in the last two games. Low floor, low ceiling play.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Wazzu doesn’t rotate much at all at receiver so take your choice between Josh Meredith, Kyle Williams and Kris Hutson. Williams and Mateer are starting to find a strong connection of late after a slow start, now with back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances with 12 targets in each of the last two games. Fresno State has been torched by opposing WR1s in the last two games, allowing a combined 60 fantasy points to Ricky White and Luke Wysong. Stacking multiple Wazzu receivers together in a lineup isn’t out of the question.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno St:
Top Play(s) – WR Raylen Sharpe ($4,400) The Missouri State transfer has seen his playing time increase with each passing week and is now a full-time starter in the slot with 27 targets over the last three games. Sharpe ascending to Fresno State’s WR1 is not out of the question in our opinion.
Fade – See injury report.
Bargain Bin – RB Elijah Gilliam ($3,800) If Sherrod sits, which seems very likely at this point, Gilliam will be next in line to assume the RB1 role. Fresno State has been putrid running the football in 2024, ranked 119th in success rate, but Gilliam is cheap enough that he won’t kill your lineup and should get the bulk of the carries. Wazzu is just 93rd in EPA per rush play defensively.
Pivot Play – QB Mikey Keene ($8,100) Rarely a Mikey Keene advocate, but situation kind of sets up for him to be a contrarian play. Fresno is likely down its RB1 and already a team that doesn’t run the football all that well. Washington State is allowing 22.4 FPPG to opposing QBs, and this is a narrow spread with a high game total. I’d look to have Keene in game stack lineups.
Best of the Rest – WR Mac Dalena ($6,000) or WR Jalen Moss ($5,200) Dalena and Moss ranked first and second on the team in routes run and receiving yards, with four of the seven touchdowns for Fresno State. Beyond the top three of Dalena, Moss and Sharpe, the next closest Bulldog receiver has all of eight targets. Very similar situation to Washington State at wideout.
Injury Notes – RB Malik Sherrod ($5,100) Fresno State beat writer posted a practice update on Friday evening and listed Sherrod as “doubtful.” We’ll see if Sherrod gets the injury tag eventually on DK, because as of Friday he does not have it.
Florida vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -14
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: Tenn 35.5 – UF 21.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Montell Johnson ($4,500) I dislike Montrell Johnson as Florida’s top play, but the pricing and projection make that the case. Johnson’s volume continues to decrease slightly with each passing week as Florida gets 4-star freshman Jadan Baugh more involved in the run game. This is also the No. 1 run defense in terms of success rate. The last two running backs to face Tennessee – Jovantae Barnes and Ja’Quinden Jackson – are of a similar talent level to Johnson, though, and combined for 32 fantasy points vs. the Vols.
Fade – QBs. Unless Billy Napier commits to one option, quarterbacks for Florida are eliminated from the player pool as DJ Lagway continues to get a few sporadic series throughout the game. Not the matchup to risk that against a Vols defense that is giving up just 9.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Chimere Dike ($4,000) We thought of including freshman WR Tank Hawkins ($3,000) as bargain option with Florida implementing more and more first-year players on offense each week, but he likely fades into the background with both Eugune Wilson and Aidan Mizell returning from injury. So, we’ll lean Dike who has played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,000) Despite playing in just two games, Wilson still ranks third on the team in targets and receptions, as he was averaging 8.0 targets and 6.5 receptions per. We don’t expect Florida to run the football with much success against the Vols, and with the strong pass rush, expect a lot of quick short passes from Mertz/Lagway which plays right into Wilson’s hands for high volume.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijah Badger ($5,000) Team leader in targets (24), receptions (17) and receiving yards. Badger is Florida’s top deep threat, averaging over 20 yards per reception with a 17.1 aDOT. Barring a surprise, the Gators will have to throw to win on Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) –
Other games featured on the Saturday Night Slate:
Ole Miss v LSU, Ohio St. v Oregon, Vanderbilt v Kentucky, Iowa St. v West Virginia, Syracuse v NC State
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 7 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.