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SMU vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -9
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: PSU 31.5 – SMU 22.5
Weather: 26 degrees / 6% rain / 13 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($7,700) Strong projection for Smith this week, much of which looks to be his usage in the passing game over the last two games with over 100 yards receiving and two scores, including 11 targets in the comeback attempt vs. Clemson. That’s really the path here for Smith to be in winning lineups, as I’m not sure how successful SMU will be on the ground against this Penn State front that is 6th in EPA per run play and 29th in defensive success rate. Just one starting running back scored more than 20 fantasy points all year vs. Penn State (Jordan James).
Fade – RB LJ Johnson ($3,300) Only path to relevancy for Johnson is if Brashard Smith gets injury or the Mustangs win in a blowout. Both occurrences of double-digit fantasy points for Johnson came when SMU won by 30 or more points. That isn’t happening on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,900) Really hasn’t been any downgrade from RJ Maryland to Hibner, as the former Michigan transfer scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Penn State allowed some monster TE performances this year, giving up 30 fantasy points to Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin and 22 fantasy points to Purdue’s Max Klare.
Pivot Play – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,700) The numbers are dominant for the Penn State secondary, allowing just 9.9 FPPG to opposing QBs, with no quarterback scoring more than 17 fantasy points against the Nittany Lions during the regular season. That was until getting lit up by Dillon Gabriel for four touchdowns in the B1G championship. Jennings isn’t Gabriel, but he’s better than any QB Penn State faced during the regular season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Targets are still dispersed evenly amongst the SMU pass-catchers, with no wideout having more than 15% of the team’s target share. There is some separation in terms of playing time, as both Key’Shawn Smith and Roderick Daniels have played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last four games. Jordan Hudson and Moochie Dixon aren’t far behind, particularly Hudson who’s seen an uptick in the last month with 19 of his 35 receptions coming in that four-week span. Three of the top four highest scoring wideouts to face Penn State this season have been slot receivers, which favors Daniels in this matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,800) SMU run defense finished No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground but were not immune to allowing fantasy points with three conference running backs scoring at least 20 fantasy points against the Mustangs. A similar type of talent to Singleton, Desmond Reid, found plenty of success in the passing game as well, with 44 yards on six receptions vs. SMU. Singleton’s ability in the passing game is what separates him from Kaytron Allen, finishing third on the team with 37 receptions on 41 targets. We’re operating this slate under the premise that Penn State beats up on SMU in the cold elements.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($3,300) It’s only right this late in the year that we fade one of our favorites yet again. When Harrison Wallace is healthy, Fleming becomes the fourth option at wideout for a team that doesn’t throw to wideouts often.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,700) A healthy Harrison Wallace is a difference maker, as shown in the B1G title game, scoring a touchdown on eight targets. Most teams were playing catchup against SMU, so inflated numbers would make sense, but four wideouts scored at least 22 fantasy points against this secondary in 2024. WR Omari Evans ($3,500) saw an expected bump in playing time vs. Oregon, playing over 70% of the snaps that night, as well as a receiving touchdown. He’s a playmaker if given the opportunity, averaging nearly 19 yards per reception with four receiving TDs.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($7,300) Have to like the way Allar closed the year, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in three of the last four games, and a rushing TD in each of the last three. SMU pass defense is strong, allowing just 18 FPPG, and each of the last three QBs faced failed to score more than 17 fpts in their respective matchups with the Mustangs. Allar might have higher ownership than anticipated because of his salary.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Warren ($7,200) In win or go home situations like this, we should be expecting teams to involve their studs as much as possible. And SMU really struggled to defend tight ends this season, with four players scoring 12 or more fantasy points against the Mustangs. If SMU struggled with Sam Roush, Kamari Morales and Mata’ava Ta’ase, you have to think Tyler Warren will have a big day. RB Kaytron Allen ($5,000) had 100+ vs. Oregon, but part of that was due to a brief injury to Singleton. Prior to that, Allen failed to eclipse four yards per carry in four of the previous five games. Don’t mind playing Allen, but do not stack the PSU backfield.
Injury Notes – QB Beau Pribula (portal)
Clemson vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -12.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Tex 32.5 – Clem 20
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Bowl Season Player Projections and DFS write-ups for this week, click here.