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Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
Point-Spread: Pitt -6.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Pitt 29 – Tol 22.5
Weather: Dome
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,200) Thought we’d have an NFL Draft opt-out watch for Reid, but the star running back confirmed that he’s returning to the Panthers in 2025. Reid missed the season finale, but HC Pat Narduzzi confirmed the RB1 is good to go for Thursday. Toledo was stout against the run during the regular season, with no running back scoring more than 18 fantasy points against the Rockets all season. Reid gives you multiple pathways to fantasy success with his ability as a pass-catcher, ranked second on the team with 46 receptions.
Fade – QB Eli Holstein ($8,100) Not an outright fade but need a lot more clarity on Holstein’s injury situation before playing him on Thursday. As of writing this on Tuesday, Holstein remains questionable after missing most of the last three games with a leg injury, though Narduzzi did sound somewhat optimistic his QB1 could play. Why fade? Holstein was awful even prior to the injury, failing to score more than 15 fantasy points in any of his last four starts.
***IF we get word Holstein is full-go, I’m potentially considering him for this reason. Five QBs scored 23 or more fantasy points against Toledo this season. Those five were Parker Navarro, Caden Veltkamp, Cole Snyder, CJ Ogbonna and Taisun Phommachanh. Not exactly a list of Heisman contenders right there.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,000) or WR Kenny Johnson ($4,200) Would expect both Pitt wideouts to get the bulk of the targets on Thursday with Konata Mumpfield opting out, Censere Lee out due to injury and WR Daejon Reynolds in the transfer portal. That’s over 30% of Pitt’s receiving production for the year.
Pivot Play – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,400) Bartholomew is on the official depth chart but some are considering the Pitt TE1 an opt-out possibility as a senior without eligibility following this year. Just one tight end scored more than 10 fantasy points against Toledo all year. Bartholomew finished fourth on the team in receptions (37), fifth in targets (50), while playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – RB Juelz Goff ($3,000) If expecting a blowout or Reid to get limited snaps, freshman Juelz Goff is the RB2. WR Zion Fowler-El ($3,000) is listed as the backup receiver at all three WR spots on the two-deep for the bowl game.
Injury Notes – QB Nate Yarnell (portal), WR Daejon Reynolds (portal), QB Eli Holstein (injury), WR Konata Mumpfield (opt-out), WR Cencere Lee (injury)
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerjuan Newton ($7,200) or WR Junior Vandeross III ($6,100) Probably wouldn’t stack the two together as Toledo hasn’t been prolific enough throwing the ball this season to warrant that. But I’d like one or the other in my lineups as both hit the 100-target mark for the season. The WR duo for Toledo combined for 53% of the target share and 15 of the 26 receiving touchdowns.
Fade – RB Jacquez Stuart ($4,900) Really wish Peny Boone just stayed at Toledo this season and didn’t transfer to become a backup at UCF. As expected, Toledo’s backfield was a mess this season, and the Rockets rotated between Stuart, RB Connor Walendzak ($4,200) and RB Sevaughn Clark ($3,000). If choosing one, we’d lean Walendzak who rushed for 87 yards on 19 attempts in the finale vs. Akron. Though averaging 4.6 yards per carry against one of the worst rush defenses in the country isn’t all that impressive. Fading the Toledo backfield entirely might be the play.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Torres ($3,800) Torres finished second on the team in touchdown receptions (8), and third in both targets (41) and receptions (27). Pitt really struggled defending the tight end position in 2024, with five different players scoring at least 13 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – QB Tucker Gleason ($7,700) Most of the Pitt starting defense should be available on Thursday. The Panthers allowed just 17.4 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season and were 49th in pass D success rate. Don’t mind sprinkling in Gleason in cash games or GPPs because there aren’t any great QBs on the slate, but it’s not the greatest of matchups either.
Best of the Rest – WR Eric Holley ($3,100) Probably the only other Toledo player I’d consider as he’s a listed starter as the WR3 on the bowl game depth chart. Played a season-high 75% of snaps with five targets in Week 14. The Rockets passing game, though, is centralized around Newton, Vandeross and
Injury Notes – WR Larry Stephens (portal)
Rutgers vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -6.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: KSU 28.5 – Rutg 22
Weather: 65 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Bowl Season Player Projections and DFS write-ups for this week, click here.