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Baylor vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Bayl -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Bayl 31.5 – LSU 28
Weather: Dome
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,000) Normally wouldn’t be on Robertson here as his projection feels a touch low for his salary, but the QB position is very light for this slate, so we’ll side with Robertson as the top play over Bryson Washington. LSU will be without one starting safety and one reserve cornerback that we know of, and Baylor should have close to its full complement of wide receivers available. LSU allowed around 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, and dual threats really gave the Tigers fits.
Fade – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($3,500) Maybe not an outright fade but would limit exposure on Hawkins on the slate. Listed in an OR on the depth chart, Hawkins was seen with a cast on his hand in Week 14, playing only a handful of snaps. The senior WR tweeted out that he’s catching passes, but does that mean he’ll be full-go?
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,100) 12 of Trigg’s 30 receptions this season came in the final month of the season, finishing fourth on the team in targets (49). LSU did manage to corral most tight ends faced, allowing just 6.1 FPPG to the position during the regular season.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($8,500) LSU finished 13th of 16 teams in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground, and each of the last five opponents faced averaged well over four yards per carry against the Tigers. 15 of the 24 rushing touchdowns allowed this season came in that 5-game span. Not a recipe for success when about to face arguably the best running back in college fantasy football the final month of the season in Washington.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No real preference here as to the Baylor WRs so pick your favorite between Josh Cameron, Hal Presley, Monaray Baldwin or Ketron Jackson. Cameron led the team in every receiving category but had just 18 percent of the team target share as the Bears really spread things out this season. Cameron and Baldwin were targeted 18 times in the Week 14 finale (If Hawkins is out, Baldwin gets a significant bump).
Injury Notes – QB Dequan Finn (portal)
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,700) There might be another WR at a better value that we’ll highlight below, but the Alabama transfer was so consistent this season, with 60 or more receiving yards in all but three games. There will be plenty of targets to go around with LSU down its WR1, WR3 and TE1.
Fade – RB Caden Durham ($6,300) Too expensive here. Josh Williams is playing. LSU beat writer suggested Kaleb Jackson is going to get a look as well (and hasn’t entered the transfer portal yet either which is telling). Baylor finished the season 7th nationally in rush D success rate, giving up just 20 FPPG combined to opposing backfields. Just feels too pricey for Durham in what might be a three-man rotation. Oh yea, and LSU might be down three starting offensive linemen.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Hilton ($3,700) Hilton’s Week 14 performance against Oklahoma is the reason folks drafted him in the latter rounds of CFF Drafts in the summer, hauling in 85 yards and two scores vs. the Sooners. Baylor allowed a combined 40 FPPG to opposing wide receivers during the regular season.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($9,100) I’d put Nussmeier as my 4th QB option for this slate behind Sellers, Robertson and Demond Williams, but there’s a chance LSU slings the ball around in what could be a high-scoring game. Baylor’s pass defense can be leaky, ranked 70th in success rate and allowed four QBs to score over 26 fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey’Dez Green ($3,000) Green will fill in as TE1 and is actually the only scholarship tight end remaining on the roster. He’ll get all the snaps he can handle on Tuesday. No official LSU depth chart as of Sunday but would imagine that WR Zavion Thomas ($3,600) starts in place of Lacy on the outside.
Injury Notes – TE Mason Taylor (opt-out), WR Kyren Lacy (opt-out), WR Shelton Sampson (portal), TE Ka’Morreun Pimpton (portal), WR CJ Daniels (portal)
Penn State vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: PSU -11.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: PSU 36.5 – BSU 25
Weather: Dome
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($7,500) Singleton has been rolling the last four games with double-digit carries and averaging over six yards per attempt. And that’s just in the rushing department. Singleton now sits third on the team with 53 targets on the year, is second in receiving touchdowns (5) and was targeted seven times vs. SMU in a Penn State blowout.
Fade – Stacking Penn State RBs. If you had the Penn State duo if Singleton and RB Kaytron Allen ($5,800) last week, you likely finished in the money. I wouldn’t risk that this week even with the Nittany Lions as a double-digit favorite. In the regular season, Boise State allowed a combined 14.4 FPPG to opposing backfields. Penn State is a different challenge than MWC opponents, and we’re fine with Singleton or Allen in a lineup, just not stacked together.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,300) A healthy Harrison Wallace is a difference maker as we’ve seen the second half of the season, averaging 6.2 targets and 58.2 receiving yards in the last five games. Those numbers may seem modest, but considering the opponent, we’ll want some exposure here. Boise State allowed a whopping 51.2 FPPG combined to opposing wide receiver rooms this year.
Pivot Play –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Bowl Season Player Projections and DFS write-ups for this week, click here.