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South Florida vs. North Texas
- Point-Spread: UNT -1
- O/U Total: 68
- Implied Score: UNT 34.5 – USF 33.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($8,500) Top QB option on the slate and don’t be scared off by North Texas ranking No. 1 in the AAC in pass defense. North Texas has faced Lamar, Western Michigan who averages 147 YPG passing, an abysmal Washington State offense, Army who runs the triple-option, and South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport. 13 or more rushing attempts for Brown in all but one game this season – a blowout of South Carolina State – and could take on more responsibilities with Cartevious Norton out for the season.
Fade – RB Alvon Isaac ($4,200) Isaac had been the first on the field after Cartevious Norton but would not be surprised if he’s lost his spot on the depth chart with just 47 rushing yards combined in the last three weeks, including a fumble vs. Charlotte.
Bargain Bin – WR Mudia Reuben ($3,800) The USF wide receiver rotation beyond Nimrod and Singleton has been tough to decipher, but against Charlotte it was Reuben who ran the third most routes out of the slot position, catching four passes with a touchdown on five targets. When healthy, he’s the starter inside.
Pivot Play – RB Sam Franklin ($4,600) A former Oklahoma transfer and 1,300-yard rusher with Tennessee-Martin at one point, Franklin has emerged the last two games with a combined 166 yards and two touchdowns. With Isaac in the doghouse and Norton out, look for Franklin to take the first snap next to Byrum Brown on Friday. North Texas is 104th in rush D success rate and 10th in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Chas Nimrod ($5,200) or WR Keshaun Singleton ($4,900) Nimrod and Singleton has both scored double-digit fantasy points just once in five games this season, so preferably are only playing one per lineup. Nimrod is clearly the first option of the two, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the last three games, including a touchdown on nine targets vs. Charlotte. Nimrod would have had 30 points if not for two drops last week.
Injury Notes – RB Cartevious Norton (out)
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Caleb Hawkins ($7,600) The freshman running back has fully taken over the RB1 job over Makenzie McGill after accounting for over 50% of North Texas’ total scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in the win over South Alabama. Seven total touchdowns now in the last two games alone. We knew the North Texas offense would be explosive but did not foresee the Mean Green ranking in the top third in the country in rushing – 180.4 YPG ranks better than Penn State, Texas and Notre Dame.
Fade – MaKenzie McGill ($6,600) McGill does have four rushing touchdowns in five games, and while falling behind Hawkins on the depth chart, still have double-digit rushing attempts in the last two games. Here’s the differentiator to me why he’s a fade. In Week 4 vs. Army, Hawkins held a 5-3 advantage in red zone carries. Against South Alabama in Week 5, it was 3-0 inside the red zone again in favor of Hawkins. If McGill isn’t getting carries near the goal line, he’s not as valuable.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Williams ($3,100) Williams won’t see a high number of targets, but does have two touchdowns, is fifth on the team in routes run and plays over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. We just thought he’d have a bigger role this season, averaging only 2.1 targets per contest. WR Cameron Dorner ($3,000) is more of a desperation play if you have $3k remaining to build your lineup. His role has declined considerably since WR Landon Sides ($5,000) returned to the lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Mestemaker ($7,500) Mestemaker has been a relative disappointment compared to expectations, given that this coaching staff has produced some top-flight fantasy options in recent years. Nobody expected North Texas to be as balanced offensively as they are. This could be the game where we see UNT air it out a bit more – South Florida has held all three non P4 opponents to under four yards a carry. If you fade Hawkins, Mestemaker is a must in lineups.
Best of the Rest – WR Miles Coleman ($5,700) 15 fantasy points in each of the last two games for Coleman, who leads the team in targets (36), receptions (245) and yards (221), though has not found the end-zone yet this season. North Texas is a heavy rotation team at receiver, so it’s possible to play Mestemaker solo on any slate with Coleman only accounting for 22% of the target share. WR Wyatt Young ($4,000) is the team leader with three touchdowns and comes in when North Texas is in 4-wide as the secondary slot receiver. Priority for UNT receivers in order would be Coleman -> Sides -> Young -> Dorner -> Simeon Evans.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
- Point-Spread: Fres -7.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Fres 27 – CSU 19.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 18% rain / 5 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
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