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Rutgers vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -7.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: BC 27.5 – Rutgers 20
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – n/a Not expecting a shootout here, and this has been one of the worst offenses in the country from a fantasy standpoint. We don’t know who will start at quarterback, are expecting a RBBC in the backfield and Rutgers will utilize 5-6 wide receivers in a constant rotation.
Fade – WRs We have four receivers projected between 7-11 fantasy points. Additional depth with transfers Sean Ryan and Taj Harris are good for the football team overall, but muddy the room in terms of fantasy production. Our prediction is there will not be a Bo Melton 30% target share wideout like it’s been the last two seasons.
Bargain Bin – QB Gavin Wimsatt ($4,700) HC Greg Schiano has said he’s not afraid to play multiple quarterbacks on Saturday, but everything we read continues to point to Wimsatt as the starter. Threw for just 30 yards in the bowl game the last time we saw Wimsatt, but the former 4-star recruit can scoot out of the pocket and make things happen with his legs.
Pivot Play – RB Kyle Monangai ($4,700) Aaron Young is recovering from a knee injury and has been limited in camp following offseason surgery. Should Young be unavailable, expect Kyle Monangai to get the bulk of the carries, along with possibly freshman Samuel Brown. Not a priority, though, as Rutgers RB1 a year ago averaged just 8.5 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – WR Joshua Youngblood ($3,200) The former Kansas State transfer is the only wide receiver on the depth chart to not have an ‘OR’ designation beside him. Per Schiano, “Josh is going to be a big part of our offense,” Schiano said. He is an incredibly hard-working guy who is talented and a big part of our special teams. I think he is a guy we rely on.” OW (offensive weapon) Johnny Langan ($3,400) is Rutgers’ Swiss army knife as he posted 18 receptions, 109 rushing yards and threw a touchdown pass in 2021.
Injury Notes – See above on Aaron Young. Not sure where his status is at entering Saturday.
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Zay Flowers ($6,300) Zay Flowers finished last season averaging 2.27 yards per routes run which was tied for 126th nationally among FBS receivers (min. 20 targets). In games where Phil Jurkovec started last season, that number was 3.21 yards per route run. Well, we have a healthy Jurkovec on Saturday, and Flowers is very reasonably priced. Everything written about Flowers this offseason has pointed to him getting fed the football.
Fade – RB Pat Garwo ($6,900) A ton of roster turnover along the offensive line for BC where essentially is replacing the entire group. Also a group that did not perform up to expectations a year ago. Rutgers could take a step back this year as they’re replacing the entire linebacking corps, but have generally stopped the run well since Schiano returned as HC. Garwo is a touchdown-dependent option as he comes off the field on third downs with his limitations as a pass-catcher and pass protector.
Bargain Bin – TE George Takacs ($3,300) Boston College has utilized the position heavily since Jeff Hafley arrived, and new offensive coordinator John McNulty was formerly a TE position coach. Takacs is a Notre Dame transfer that is expected to have an immediate impact, and brings a ton of size at 6-foot-6.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – QB Phil Jurkovec ($6,300) I do wonder if BC tries to limit Jurkovec as a runner, as he’s the key to their season, but even coming back from injury last year the QB1 averaged over 12 carries a game with five rushing scores. Scored 26 FPPG in the five games he was healthy last season.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. East Carolina
Point-Spread: NC St -11.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: NC St 31.5 – ECU 20
Weather: 85 degrees / 10% rain / 5 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Devin Leary ($7,500) We don’t expect Leary to replicate his 35-5 touchdown to interception ratio like he did last year, but the NC State quarterback was one of the most consistent options in college fantasy, scoring 20 or more points in his last four games.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($5,900) Houston is the clear-cut RB1 at a modest price, so this isn’t the worst play, but also not one we’re rushing to play. NC State does return four starters on the line, but lost their best linemen to the NFL Draft, and averaged just 126 yards per game on the ground last year. An NC State running back score more than 20 fantasy points just twice last year, coincidentally by both Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight in the opener.
Bargain Bin – WR Keyon Lesane ($3,700) Listed as a starter on the depth chart, the WR3 for NC State has averaged 32 receptions and four touchdowns the last two seasons.
Pivot Play – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,200) and Devin Carter ($6,000) NC State receivers have been fade plays the last two years, but there are 89 vacated targets with Emeka Emezie now graduated. Neither player has accounted for more than 22% target share in two years as the distribution is usually split.
Best of the Rest – TE Trent Pennix ($3,500) Longshot play with Pennix, but there are some indications he might play the Jaylen Samuels-type role from a year ago as a hybrid tight end.
Injury Notes – n/a
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR C.J. Johnson ($4,000) Once thought to be off the team after a spring suspension, Johnson is back on the roster and the likely starter in the slot now, formerly held by Tyler Snead who led the team in receptions the last three seasons. Snead was targeted 86 times per year on average.
Fade – QB Holton Ahlers ($6,100) A big reason as to why NC State is a popular selection to win the ACC this year? 84% returning production on a defense that ranked 14th in scoring, allowing just 19.7 PPG. That includes a secondary that has all four starters back, along with their top nickelback. Projections have Ahlers at just 18 fantasy points this week.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – TE Ryan Jones ($5,300) Nobody will roster a tight end at $5,300 unless your name is Michael Mayer or Brock Bowers. But a recent article published by the ECU beat writer called for the 6-foot-3 tight end to possibly lead the Pirates in receptions in 2022. Jones was excellent in the final month of last season, averaging 14 FPPG in that span.
Best of the Rest – RB Keaton Mitchell ($6,700) does have a solid projection of around 17 fantasy points, but we’ll be fading for all the similar reasons we gave for Ahlers above. As dynamic as Mitchell is, this will remain a shared backfield with Rahjai Harris as they accounted for 36% and 34% of the volume share, respectively. WRs Isaiah Winstead ($4,400) might be worth a look at his pricing. The Toledo transfer averaged 15 YPC in two seasons with the Rockets.
Injury Notes – n/a
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