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Miami (Ohio) vs. Miami (FL)
Point-Spread: Mia-FL -17.5
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: Mia-FL 32.5 – Mia-OH 14
Weather: 85 degrees / 43% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – WR Miles Marshall ($5,100) Unlikely to have a ton of exposure from the lowest implied total on the slate among FBS teams, but we’ve seen a good deal of success of the last few years from the RedHawks WR1. Over 20 FPPG the last three seasons on average between Jack Sorenson and Mac Hippenhammer, with both hitting the 30% target share threshold we love. Former Indiana transfer Miles Marshall is the likely candidate to be WR1 in 2023, given that he’s the only returnee to have caught a pass last season.
Fade – RBs. HC Chuck Martin ALWAYS employs a committee approach in the backfield, with the RB1 averaging just 10.1 FPPG over the last nine seasons. We don’t want to start Miami-Ohio running backs in MACtion DFS, so we sure as hell ain’t playing them against an ACC opponent.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Wilkins Jr. ($4,500) While the aforementioned Marshall is the perceived WR1, the RedHawks did hit the portal to bolster the wide receiver room with former Notre Dame transfer Joe Wilkins Jr. In Brett Gabbert’s last full season as a starter, the WR2 for Miami (OH) did average 7.5 targets per game back in 2021, so potential for fantasy relevance from the second option in the passing game.
Pivot Play – WR Gage Larvadain ($5,100) Very surprised to see Larvadain’s pricing this high, but he was productive at the Division III level, catching 59 passes last season at SE Louisiana. This passing offense usually funnels to the outside receivers, though, favoring Marshall/Wilkins, so I’m unlikely to have any/much exposure there.
Best of the Rest – QB Brett Gabbert ($5,800) Probably not wise for Gabbert to throw gas on the fire with his weekly comments, calling his school the “real” Miami, considering the Hurricanes’ defensive line is deemed the strength of the unit, ranking 30th in rush defense and 27th in creating pressure in 2022. Miami (OH) will return three starters on the OL. The Hurricanes are also top 10 in returning defensive production from a year ago. With an entirely revamped WR corps, we’ll avoid Gabbert and wait for easier matchups to roster him down the line.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Colbie Young ($5,700) Young and Restrepo’s salaries should be flopped here. Young will serve as the team’s WR1 to start 2023, coming off a strong offseason where he’s reshaped his body and cut body fat. Six 1,000-yard receivers in the last nine years under OC Shannon Dawson.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish Jr. ($6,200) Hopefully this fade doesn’t backfire because Parrish was very good last season in the non-conference portion of the schedule, scoring 60 fantasy points in the first two games. The difference in 2023 is added depth in the Miami backfield with Nebraska transfer Ajay Allen and incoming 4-star FR Mark Fletcher, both of whom impressed in fall camp. More rotation + move to Air Raid offense = less opportunities for Parrish.
Bargain Bin – WR Nathaniel Joseph ($3,000) Joseph made a strong impression during spring ball at the slot receiver position where he displayed his quick burst, acceleration, and shiftiness. That culminated in a strong spring game performance where Joseph had a 79-yard touchdown reception from fellow freshman Emory Williams. He probably won’t start Week 1 with Xavier Restrepo locked into that job, but we’re expecting him to get rotational reps at a position where Miami lacks depth and high-end talent.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,900) Restrepo and Colbie Young’s salaries should be flopped, but the veteran slot receiver is safely among the top two options in the passing game. Tight end spot has talent, but dealt with injuries, while the coaching staff hit the portal hard to find a partner for Young on the outside. Not sure the WR3 position is even settled at the moment. Restrepo will see low ownership because of his inflated pricing.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,600) There were some rumors that Tyler Van Dyke was not 100% heading into this week’s matchup, but those seemed to have been squashed with some of the recent comments made to the media. TVD is one of the safer selections on the slate at the QB position in our minds, with Miami moving to an Air Raid style offense in 2023 under new OC Shannon Dawson, formerly of Houston. In the last seven seasons as an offensive play-caller/assistant, Dawson’s QB1 has combined to average just under 28 FPPG. Miami (OH) also lost their best cornerback to the transfer portal in the offseason. Limited upside because of TVD’s lack of mobility, but high floor. WR3 opposite Colbie Young should be Jacolby George ($4,600) who has reportedly “excited the folks in the building” but we heard those comments last year.
Injury Notes – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,000) The talented former 4-star tight end dealt with injury during fall camp but seems to be on track to play Friday. TE1 under Dawson avg. just 2.75 targets per game in four years at Houston.
Central Michigan vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -15
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: MSU 32 – CMU 17
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Here’s what we know. There is an OR on the depth chart between QB Bert Emanuel ($6,000) and backup Jase Bauer ($6,600). Does DK know something we don’t pricing Bauer over Emanuel? We also read that in the final scrimmage, it was Emanuel taking the first reps. From what has been gleaned over the offseason, neither QB impressed much with their passing abilities and still remains a potential two-QB situation. We know the upside of Emanuel with his rushing skills, but that was displayed in the MAC. Not on the road against a B1G opponent.
As for the rest of the parts. Emanuel completed four passes in four games last November, so we’re not interested whatsoever in the passing game components. The projected starting receivers combined for five catches last season. We were slightly interested in the running game is Jase Bauer got the QB1 job. Figuring he’d pass more, would we have seen a Lew Nichols-like workload? Dreaded OR on the depth chart between Marion Lukes ($4,900) and Myles Bailey ($4,500), though we don’t have either player projected to score more than 10 points on Friday. CMU does return three starters on the OL. We’ll probably just wait for MACtion to roster any Chips.
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