To view Week 3 Player Projections,click here.
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here.
Tennessee vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UT -6.5
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: UT 31.5 – Fla 25
Weather: 80 degrees / 15% rain / 8 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Joe Milton ($7,400) Hype train halted last week for Bazooka Joe last week as the Vols had just a 13-6 lead over Austin Peay at halftime before eventually pulling away in the second half. Maybe the weather delay to start the game had an impact for coming out of the gates slowly? Milton’s stat line was very pedestrian considering the opponent, with his longest pass completion being just 45 yards. Still, the Vols rotate so much at RB and WR that he’s the safest best to roll out in a lineup, and Milton’s 27-point projection is still strong. After facing Utah and McNeese State, the Gators are 43rd in success rate against the pass.
Fade – RB Dylan Sampson ($4,900) The breakout star of Week 1 rode the pine most of last week against Austin Peay, giving way to starters Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Didn’t watch the game, but we’re assuming this is how the true rotation will be in competitive matchups, we is expected against Florida.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone below $4.5k.
Pivot Play – Start Joe Milton without any WR stacks. This isn’t as spread out as say an SMU receiver group, but it’s not far off. Fairly evident to this point that we won’t have a Jalin Hyatt-like fantasy performance at Tennessee this season with three receivers between 17-22% of the target share. And that’s with Dont’e Thornton being a relative non-factor to this point.
Best of the Rest – WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,500) Tons of hype surrounding Dont’e Thornton and his arrival in Knoxville, viewed as a potential replacement for Jalin Hyatt in the slot given his size and speed combination. Maybe this week is a breakout? But it appears the Oregon transfer was benched after a clear drop on the sidelines vs. Austin Peay and played just a handful of snaps. We’ll see if he’s back in the good graces of the staff this week if that was in fact a benching, which it appears to have been. RB Jaylen Wright ($6,100) is the preferred option over Jabari Small at a cheaper salary and the fact that he’s just plain better at this stage of his college career. Starting RBs against Florida is not advisable, though, as we saw Week 1 with Ja’Quinden Jackson.
Injury Notes – n/a All good on the injury front for the Vols.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,600) 30% target share wide receivers in college football are fantasy gold typically, even if Graham Mertz is throwing you the football. No other Florida wideout has more than six targets on the year, compared to 20 for Pearsall who’s scored over 40 fantasy points combined in the first two games. The Vols secondary has played very well over the first two weeks, but that’s to be expected when facing Virginia and Austin Peay.
Fade – WR Caleb Douglas ($5,300) Routes run rates remain the same for Douglas last week against McNeese State but was targeted just a single time on the night. There are more talented options waiting in the wings, namely Eugene Wilson who are preferred choices when constructing your lineups. 4-star FR Aidan Mizell also saw considerable work against McNeese State and could challenge Douglas for his starting job.
Bargain Bin – WR Eugene Wilson ($4,700) Started his first game as a Gator, collecting four receptions on four targets. The true freshman 5-star recruit ran as many routes as both Caleb Douglas and Ricky Pearsall last week and would appear his spot is cemented moving forward in the starting lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Graham Mertz ($6,400) Gave serious consideration to the over on Mertz’ prop bet this week at 204.5 passing yards. Why? Very real chance this game plays out like the Utah matchup in Week 1 where the Gators are forced to throw in a trailing position. And the wide receiver group is improved with a clear WR1 and a 5-star freshman in the starting lineup. No, I won’t play Mertz, but he scored 18 fantasy points the first two weeks, and you might take that at just $6.4k in smaller contests.
Best of the Rest – Florida backfield. 18 carries a piece between Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, with the slight edge to the latter in the passing game with five receptions on five targets. 6-3 edge in favor of Johnson for red-zone carries. I’d lean rolling with neither player against this Tennessee front that stymied its first two opponents on the ground.
Injury Notes – WR Kahleil Jackson ($5,000) Jackson sat out last week with a lower body injury but is not listed on the injury report for the matchup with the Vols. Wilson, mentioned above started in his place, but I don’t think the coaches are looking backward at this point. Especially with Billy Napier already on the hot seat, you’re rolling with the 5-star Wilson ahead of a former walk-on in the starting lineup.
Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -13
O/U Total: 42
Implied Score: Neb 27.5 – NIU 14.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($5,500) This NIU grad is ready to clean house and fire the entire coaching staff after last week’s debacle against Southern Illinois. Thomas Hammock needed a bounce back season after finishing 3-9 in 2022. Not great, Bob. On the plus side, the junior slot receiver has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal offensive showing for NIU, leading the team in targets, yards, touchdowns, and receptions. Nebraska has given up the 7th most fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs through two games.
Fade – QB Rocky Lombardi ($6,500) NIU will be in a trailing position most likely so game script will be working in Lombardi’s favor but he’s shown us nothing to this point in 2023 that leads us to believe this offense will have success on the road against a B1G opponent. Even one as poor defensively as Nebraska. It would not surprise me to see Lombardi replaced at some point this season to get a look at younger options for the future.
Bargain Bin – TE Chris Carter ($3,000) Don’t know anything about Carter aside that he’s 6-foot-7, a Howard University transfer, and has caught five passes on six targets through two weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($5,200) The junior receiver has been overshadowed in the box score by Rutkiewicz, but NIU isn’t slow-playing Rudolph since coming back from injury. Still second on the team in routes run among receivers. We know the kind of explosiveness Rudolph can bring to the table, it’s a matter of the QB getting him the football consistently. The Huskies are having a difficult time running the football too in 2023, so this sets up for 30+ pass attempts…for better or worse.
Best of the Rest – RB Antario Brown ($5,200) Volume certainly wasn’t the issue for Brown last week, accumulating 22 carries in the loss. The OL is not getting the job done unfortunately. 92nd in Line Yards, 90th in Stuff Rate and 87th in rush play success rate. Of the two defensive components, Nebraska has been far better at stopping the run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.