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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: OSU -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: OSU 29 – ND 26
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,400) Lean on your best players in the biggest moments. Have to think Kyle McCord will be looking early and often towards his trusted companion on the outside. We’ve seen an uptick in production from MHJ in the last two games, topping 100 yards in each week with three touchdowns. Tough matchup with Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison, and MHJ was limited to just five receptions for 56 yards in last year’s matchup in Columbus.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($6,300) If Fleming was $4.3k, we’re heavily considering him. The only way to rationalize Fleming at this salary is that he’s on the field literally just as much as both Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egubka, with just as many targets as the latter. The production simply isn’t there, averaging 9.1 yards per catch. He’ll be severely underowned in all formats if you’re looking for a longshot GPP.
Bargain Bin – RB Chip Trayanum ($4,000) The former Arizona State transfer has seen just as many carries as Miyan Williams has in each of the last two games. Both have been blowouts so I take this with a grain of salt and could definitely see Ohio State leaning on their trusted senior in Williams in a road spot like this. But has there been a change at the RB2 spot behind TreVeyon?
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,200) We keep hearing it from the staff. Henderson is the healthiest he’s been in quite some time, and some good production is coming with it. Four rushing touchdowns in the last two games, and we saw separation with Henderson’s volume compared to the other backups on the roster. Notre Dame’s rush defense has been adequate, but strength of schedule also comes into play. Numbers will look good when you’ve faced Navy, Central Michigan and NC State. WR Emeka Egubka ($7,600) has three receiving touchdowns in the last two games, but here’s the reason why his numbers are down. His average depth of target is just 5.6 yards in 2023. That’s half of what it was each of the last two years.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyle McCord ($8,200) Will eat some crow here if I’m wrong on this prediction, but I haven’t seen anything above and beyond from McCord to this point that makes me think he’ll thrive in a road start at night at Notre Dame. The Irish are 10th in pass D success rate and allowing just 13.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Now those numbers do consist of Navy’s QB, Central Michigan’s QB and Brennan Armstrong, but all accounts are that the ND secondary is playing well this season. Not that this has any significance on the game but I always like to point this out. Three Ohio State beat writers gave their prop predictions on o/u 2.5 touchdowns for Kyle McCord. All said under.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Thomas ($5,900) Don’t shoot the messenger if this play doesn’t pan out, but from a pricing and projection perspective, I think Thomas makes the most sense here. Team leader in targets (16), receptions (12) and routes run among Notre Dame receivers this season. Notre Dame won’t be able to hand the ball off to its stable of running backs all game, and I’ve said this time and again now, but rotations likely tighten up in games of importance like this. Thomas is ND’s WR1.
Fade – RB Jadarian Price ($5,000) I’ve been very encouraged by Price’s performances in September and if Audric Estime leaves for the NFL after this year, the sophomore running back will likely rank very highly in our 2024 College Fantasy rankings. That said, I think the Central Michigan box score will mirror what we see on Saturday with Estime dominating the touches in the ND backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,900) Too big a moment for the true freshman? The shine has worn off a bit since the opening game, but Greathouse is still second on the team lead with three receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Hartman ($8,500) This is what a veteran quarterback like Sam Hartman was brought to South Bend for – games like this. We know how good the Irish passing offense has been through four games, ranking 10th in success rate and 3rd in pass EPA/per play. Can Hartman do it in the spotlight now against a secondary that just limited Austin Reed to 12 fantasy points? You want some exposure here, but a 23-point projection at $8.5k makes this just a mid-tier play.
Best of the Rest – RB Audric Estime ($7,500) As we stated above, we do think Estime’s workload last week against CMU will mirror what we see on Saturday with the Irish RB1 garnering 60% of the volume share. Same question as Hartman – can Estime find success against what has statistically been a very good Ohio State rush defense? 13th in rush D success rate for the Buckeyes and have allowed just 22 fantasy points all season to running backs. I’m not stacking the Irish offense in any lineup, but you want pieces here and there. TE Holden Staes ($4,600) has become a mainstay in the Notre Dame starting lineup, now with four receiving touchdowns in the last three games. WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,700) has seen an uptick in production in recent weeks and had his best game yet with 91 yards and a TD vs. CMU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -14.5
O/U Total: 38.5
Implied Score: PSU 26.5 – Iowa 12
Weather: 56 degrees / 83% rain / 14 mph winds
Iowa:
Is Saturday’s matchup Kirk Ferentz’ wet dream? Game total under 40. Swirling 14 mph winds. 56% chance rain expected, and special teams will most likely be the deciding factor in the outcome? We don’t have a single Iowa player projected to score more than 11 fantasy points for the matchup with Penn State who possess a top 10 defense. TE Erick All ($3,700) deserves some consideration at his price as he steps in for Luke Lachey as the starting tight end. Outside of that, zero interest on the Iowa side. This game is going to severely hurt Brian Ferentz chances at hitting his contractual obligations of 25 points per game in 2023.
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