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Miami vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Mia 28 – BC 20.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – RB Mark Fletcher ($6,300) Henry Parrish and Donald Chaney Jr. played all of 18 combined snaps vs. Louisville last week as this backfield has officially been turned over to the 4-star freshman who had a monster performance against a good Louisville defense with 100+ yards and two scores. Unless BC loads the box and forces the passing game to beat them, Miami should have plenty of success on the ground Friday as the Eagles rank 13th in run defense in the ACC and give up the 26th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. BC has allowed over 5.97 yards per carry in four of the last five games. Yikes.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($4,800) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Brashard Smith ($3,400) We know the top three are solidified. Smith has seen his playing time double since about Week 7, splitting time in the slot with Xavier Restrepo as Miami doesn’t have a dependable tight end healthy on the roster. Four or more targets in five of the last six games.
Pivot Play – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,400) I thought TVD was solid last week against a very good Louisville secondary, throwing for 327 yards and a touchdown. Play-calling down the stretch for Miami was very questionable in their attempts to tie that game late. We’ve also got narratives working in our favor here as this will be a homecoming game for Van Dyke where many relatives are expected to be in attendance. Not that Van Dyke is a runner, but he’s still dealing with a leg injury that is a slight cause for concern. I won’t have any exposure here, but he’s not an outright fade. BC does not grade out well against the pass.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Midseason Xavier Restrepo showed up last week with 193 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. His 16.0 aDOT against Louisville was the highest of his season as Miami challenged their secondary with deep route patterns. Here’s the one issue – Boston College, despite grading out poorly defending the pass, has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. Maybe because they get dominated on the ground each week? Or the lack of good quarterbacks in the ACC has something to do with it. Two highest scoring receivers to face BC this season have both been slot receivers, fwiw.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – RB Kye Robichaux ($5,500) The Hurricanes have the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC, allowing 92 yards per game on the ground, but don’t view it as an impenetrable defense. Louisville found plenty of success last week en route to 162 yards on 34 attempts with a backup RB playing primarily. Love that Robichaux was questionable entering the Pittsburgh matchup and still dominated the BC backfield touch share with 24 attempts and 118 yards. This is a very attainable price for a running back that has hit 100+ in three of the last four.
Fade – WR Jaden Williams ($3,500) A starter to begin the year, Williams was targeted three times in Week 11 vs. Virginia Tech with zero receptions. Last week, the junior receiver didn’t log a single offensive snap. Doesn’t have an injury tag on DK, and he feels like a prime transfer candidate after the year.
Bargain Bin – WR Dino Tomlin ($3,600) The son of Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has led BC in targets in each of the last two games as it appears he’s taken over as a starter over the aforementioned Jaden Williams. BC didn’t rotate at all at receiver last week with the top three playing most of the game.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,000) A low-cost option at the quarterback position who can run puts Castellanos in play, but he has not been nearly as effective in the month of November as he was the prior month. Injuries play a part, but that’s what happens to smaller dual-threat QBs. Less than 15 fantasy points scored in three of the last four. Miami allows 16.8 FPPG to quarterbacks, but just 76th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Lewis Bond ($4,000) Man, they’ve really underpriced the BC components this week, as Bond should probably be at least $4.5k, if not more, based on his production this season. Five different receivers this season have scored 16 fantasy points or more against the Hurricanes. WR Joseph Griffin Jr. ($3,300) has had a disappointing year compared to expectations entering 2023, but Miami is susceptible to allowing big plays, and Griffin has a 15.3 aDOT this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -10.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: OU 37 – TCU 26.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($7,300) Really difficult to settle on a top option for TCU this week. Normally, it’d be Emani Bailey, but seen some slippage with the run game of late. Hoover has thrown for 300+ in each of the last three games, and multiple 400-yard passing performances in the last month and a half. This is a must-win game for TCU to achieve bowl eligibility and have to imagine they’ll throw the kitchen sink offensively in attempts to do so. Hoover is a solid play but not someone we need to force in our lineups as OU is giving up just 16.0 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – Backups. We’ve got a lot of TCU players with a projection this week, but rotations has tightened up here in the final stretch of the season, aside from when the game was already decided against Baylor. Top three receivers are our only options this week. I don’t think there is any threat that Chandler Morris will get playing time. And Emani Bailey controls the backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylon Robinson ($4,500) Robinson is the cheapest I would go if looking for a TCU option. The UCF transfer is fourth in targets (46) and third in routes run despite playing in only nine games this season.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($5,400) Quiet day from Williams last week with just 51 yards on two targets, but TCU pulled the starters early in the second half. The junior receiver had been trending upwards with Hoover as the starter prior to that, including 11-164-1 against Texas. What goes under the radar is that both Warren Thompson and Dylan Wright are done with TCU and will not play, so don’t expect much rotation like we saw earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($6,900) Volume share hasn’t deviated at all, but we’re seeing TCU run the ball less since Hoover took over, and you wonder if Bailey is starting to wear down a bit now with 200+ rushing attempts for the first time in his career. Actually, it’s the first time with more than 105 rushing attempts in a season, so wear and tear is absolutely a concern. That said, we just saw BYU rush for over 200 yards against this same Sooner defense. TE Jared Wiley ($5,600) is coming off a career best 178 yards and two scores vs. Baylor last week and has now been targeted at least seven times in each of the last three games. OU is giving up 7.1 FPPG to tight ends. WR JP Richardson ($5,300) leads TCU in targets (65) and receptions (42), facing a secondary that is giving up 17.1 FPPG to receivers. OU is 98th in pass attempts allowed per game, so expect TCU to chuck it around.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,500) With the QB situation unknown and pricing, this is the easy selection. 107 rushing yards on just 14 carries in terrible field conditions at BYU as Sawchuk has now hit the century mark in each of the last three games. TCU is allowing the 20th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – RB Tawee Walker ($5,200) I think the surprises in the OU backfield are fin for the season. 49-14 advantage in favor of Sawchuk the last three games for rushing attempts. Only way in which Walker will hit value on Friday is if Sawchuk gets injured or OU decides to go run-heavy should Dillon Gabriel not play.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Gibson ($3,000) Three touchdowns in Gibson’s last four games played as he had a career-high 82 yards against BYU last week. This is a risky play, though, given the QB uncertainty and the fact that Gibson only plays 1/3 of the game normally.
Pivot Play – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,300) To get ahead this week with the holidays, I have to write this up on Tuesday and the status is currently unknown for Gabriel after suffering an injury against BYU. If he starts, the matchup is solid against a TCU secondary that is 62nd in pass D success rate and allows over 18 FPPG to quarterbacks. Likely would be Gabriel’s final appearance in an Oklahoma uniform too in front of the home crowd. With the cheap options available at running back, we can spend up at QB.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We know the situation here by now. Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson and Jalil Farooq are all options, though downgraded if we see Jackson Arnold under center Friday. Four of the top five highest scoring receivers to face TCU this season played on the boundary, which would favor Anderson and Farooq. Limit one OU receiver in your lineup.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the QB situation.
Iowa vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -2.5
O/U Total: 26.5
Implied Score: Neb 14.5 – Iowa 12
Weather: 29 degrees / 5% rain / 15 mph winds
Iowa:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 13 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.