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Texas A&M vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -11.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: LSU 39 – A&M 27.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 9% rain / 9 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Nabers ($9,600) We’ll touch on some of the numbers below for the A&M secondary and why it’s difficult to envision playing Jayden Daniels this week with his inflated salary. Nabers, though, is absolutely in play. A&M is allowing the 28th fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers but have given up three 30+ performances to SEC receivers. None of which are as good as Nabers.
Fade – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,600) Too high a price to pay here, in my opinion, for a player that has been held to zero points scored in three games this season. Fourth on the team in targets (35) and third in touchdowns (6), coming off his best performance of the season with 100+ yards and two scores last week. That came against the worst secondary in the country, though, in Georgia State. Not the case with the Aggies. WR3s facing A&M this season average just 4.8 FPPG.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) Third on the team in targets (38) and routes run but has not had the impact some expected in what is typically a tight end friendly passing scheme under OC Mike Denbrock. A&M allows just 3.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB Jayden Daniels ($11,000) Can you successfully construct a lineup while absorbing this salary? We know the upside, obviously, because Daniels has done it the last two games with 65+ fantasy points against both Florida and Georgia State. While I love the narrative of needing to continue these video game-like numbers to ensure his trip to New York City for the Heisman, I don’t think it makes a ton of sense. A&M is allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and the last few games have shown the defense is still playing hard in this lost season.
Best of the Rest – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($8,000) Probably not realistic to stack both Nabers and Thomas in the same lineup together given the cost, but a top-heavy target share between the two at 55% with 26 of the team’s 37 receiving touchdowns. RB situation feels like a fade this week with RB Logan Diggs ($5,600) returning from injury after sitting out the last two games. Expect to see Josh Williams potentially get the start as a senior and team captain. A&M allows the 11th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaylen Henderson ($6,400) Color me surprised that a former backup at Fresno State is finding success in the SEC, but that’s the case for Henderson who has now scored 52 combined fantasy points in the last two games. LSU should steamroll in this matchup, but the defense is still putrid. The Tigers are allowing the 17th most fantasy points in the country to receivers.
Fade – WR Evan Stewart ($5,900) Stewart doesn’t have the injury tag but is rumored to not be healthy and even more rumors swirling that the former 5-star receiver will be entering the transfer portal at the conclusion of the season. Ran a season-low 13 routes last week against Abilene Christian with one reception. In a meaningless game, would it surprise anyone if Stewart preserves his own health for his future home in 2024?
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Thomas ($4,300) Was very intrigued by the 6-foot-6 Thomas at the beginning of the season, posting four touchdowns in the first two games, but an ankle injury limited his production in the following three matchups. 14 catches in the last five games, so he’s not a high-volume option, but did run the most routes of any wide receiver against Abilene Christian last week. He’d get the starting nod if Stewart were to sit or be limited. WR Moose Muhammad ($4,000) feels like another transfer possibility this offseason as his playing time and production have declined across the board. But with Stewart limited/out, Muhammad had his best performance of the season with 104 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. We know he’s talented.
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,500) The most consistent fantasy producer for A&M in 2023, leading the team with 45 receptions on 67 targets. Slot receivers have had a ton of success against this LSU secondary in 2023, with Luther Burden, Jordan Watkins and Eugene Wilson all scoring 19 or more fantasy points against the Tigers.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Tough to get a read on this situation. Not surprising in the slightest that A&M got its 5-star freshman involved against an FCS opponent last week with Rueben Owens garnering 18 carries for 106 yards and a TD. Do we think that level of volume is sustainable? Evidence would point towards no as A&M has split up the carries evenly between Owens and Amari Daniels in the previous three games. Le’Veon Moss saw just one snap in Week 12 in his return from injury and would add another layer to this messy backfield split. Landing on the correct RB here could pay off as LSU allows 19 FPPG to RB1s this season, but the Aggies are likely to be in a trailing position so fading the entire group might be the best course of action.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -3.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UM 25 – OSU 21.5
Weather: 32 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,000) Michigan’s secondary stacks up with Penn State when looking from a statistical lense, and MHJ was targeted 15 times in that matchup with the Nittany Lions, resulting in 162 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches. Should see low ownership because of his pricing and the matchup, as the Wolverines give up the fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Fade – RB Chip Trayanum ($4,900) 35 or fewer rush yards in each of the last six games for Trayanum who likely won’t see more than 5-7 carries on Saturday as long as TreVeyon Henderson remains healthy.
Bargain Bin – TE Cade Stover ($4,500) After being shut out against Wisconsin in Week 9, Stover rebounded with a pair of strong performances against Michigan State and Minnesota with a pair of touchdowns on a combined 12 targets. Michigan is giving up just 3.8 FPPG to tight ends this season, as no player at the position has hit double-digit fantasy points against the Wolverines.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,300) As we alluded to above, I think 20+ carries for Henderson (assuming he remains healthy) is a near lock for Saturday. And the workload Henderson received against Wisconsin and Rutgers when he returned from injury will mirror what we see this weekend. Does that translate into fantasy production? Tough to say with Michigan allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. But I suspect the volume will be there. Henderson’s also been more of a factor in the passing game the last month with 13 of his 16 receptions coming in the last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,300) Playing time increased with each passing week since returning from injury, ramping up the junior receiver’s reps in preparation for this matchup. Saw eight targets last week against Minnesota. While Egbuka is a future first-round NFL Draft Pick, he’ll likely be matched up with Michigan’s defensive MVP this season in Mike Sainristil who picked off Taulia Tagovailoa twice last week. Given the pricing, I would say QB Kyle McCord ($8,200) is the better of the two DFS options in this game, but don’t trust him against a Michigan defense that gives up the fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,400) I’d suspect a highly-motivated Corum on Saturday in his final showing at the Big House, and after the fact he missed last year’s contest with a knee injury. Like the Penn State game, I think Michigan leans on the run game Saturday (with a few tricks up their sleeve of course). The one concern is that the Ohio State is equally as good defensively as Penn State, with a coaching staff that is much smarter.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($8,900) That’s my quarterback, but this is not the matchup to play him. Michigan has protection concerns on the offensive line right now at the tackle position. McCarthy has an ankle injury that has limited his mobility, and some rumors that he might’ve suffered another injury post-Penn State matchup. Icing on the cake is that Ohio State allows the second fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($4,700) Ohio State is 10th in fewest fantasy points allowed this season, but still remember that contest against Notre Dame earlier in the year where Mitchell Evans was a difference maker with 75 yards on seven targets. The 6-foot-5 sophomore is second on the team in targets (44), receptions (32) and touchdowns (4).
Pivot Play – WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,500) Down year for the senior receiver has he record just one receiving touchdown and fewer receptions in 2023 than he had in each of the last two seasons. 4-1 drop to touchdown ratio as a senior is brutal. That said, the Game provides a shot at redemption for a year’s worth of struggles, and Johnson was one of the stars last year with 160 yards and two scores on four catches. For as bad as the numbers look on paper, Johnson still leads the Wolverines in routes run this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,000) X-factors win games like this, and there is no bigger potential X-factor on the Wolverines roster than Edwards because of his versatility as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield. The big-game performances from the junior receiver can’t be ignored either, after rushing for 50+ yards and a touchdown against Penn State two weeks ago. WR Roman Wilson ($6,300) is expected to play after sitting most of last week’s matchup with Maryland due to a head injury. Team leader with 10 of Michigan’s 20 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 13 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.