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Notre Dame vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: ND -25.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: ND 37.5 – Stan 12
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($7,500) Hartman will be the quarterback I have the second-most exposure to on the slate as he faces a horrendous Stanford defense that doesn’t do anything particularly well on that side of the ball. In particular, the secondary that is allowing the second most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and 131st in pass D success rate.
Fade – TE Holden Staes ($4,600) I thought Staes would hold(en) down the fort with Mitchell Evans out for the season due to injury, but the sophomore tight end has just 13 receiving yards in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, TE Eli Raridon ($3,000) converted on all three of his targets last week with a touchdown. Stanford allows the third most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($4,000) Best performance by a Notre Dame receiver all year last week for the freshman who caught eight passes on nine targets for 102 yards. Since taking over a starting role midseason, Flores now lead the Irish with 45 targets and is first in routes run. The Cardinal allow the most fantasy points in the country to receivers so any one of the Irish options at the position are worth considering.
Pivot Play – RB Audric Estime ($8,200) We questioned last week how many carries Estime would receive in a blowout scenario, and ND had no issue feeding their senior running back the rock, finishing with 115 yards on 22 attempts. Stanford’s run defense is only minimally better against the run, but not by much, allowing 17 FPPG to RB1s and 125th in rush D success rate. Does Estime get a full workload again if this game is lopsided?
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Faison ($3,100) Surprised they haven’t increased Faison’s salary after catching six passes on eight targets with a touchdown in the last two games. The walk-on is now splitting reps with Chris Tyree in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,100) Ayomanor is eight targets shy of a 100-target season in 2023, while also just 35 yards away from a 1,000-yard season which I never would’ve thought possible after Week 5. Notre Dame’s pass defense is borderline elite, ranking 4th in pass D success rate and allowing the 14th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers which should indicate our true interest here in Ayomanor. Stanford is 31st in pass play percentage so the volume should be there for Ayomanor to have a shot at hitting value.
Fade – QB. See above. ND pass defense is exceptional, and the Irish allow the third fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,700) Excited to see this sophomore tight end in the future as Stanford has not missed a beat with Ben Yurosek out of the lineup. Roush has at least four receptions in four of the last five games. As we harped on in the preseason, this is a coaching staff that has utilized the tight end position frequently in the past at Sacramento State.
Pivot Play – RB EJ Smith ($4,200) Don’t get me wrong; Stanford won’t be able to run the football at all against the Irish. But we FINALLY saw this coaching staff utilize EJ Smith the way we thought in the preseason with eight receptions on 10 targets last week against California. This is a coaching staff that had a 70+ catch running back at Sacramento State a few years ago, and that is Smith’s best attribute. Preferred on DK in full-point PPR.
Best of the Rest – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,300) Second on the team in targets (58), receptions (36) and routes run. The 4-star freshman will be an integral part of the Stanford offense down the road if other P5 teams don’t poach him away after this season. 36 of his 58 targets have come in the last five weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: Clem -7.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Clem 28.5 – SC 21
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Brown ($5,100) This is just the perfect scenario aligning together for Brown. Beaux Collins is out, depleting what is already a weakness on the Clemson offense. South Carolina has a very poor secondary, ranking 87th in pass D success rate and allowing the second most passing yards in the SEC. Lastly, seven different receivers have scored 19 or more fantasy points against the Gamecocks this season. Six play in the slot. Where does Tyler Brown play? You guessed it.
Fade – n/a. Everyone on the Clemson side is priced appropriately to where they’re a potential option.
Bargain Bin – WR Adam Randall ($3,100) Randall will step into the starting lineup with Beaux Collins not available tonight. Caught two passes on three targets for 57 yards last week in his most extended action since Week 4. While a disappointing career to date so far, 5-star talent is 5-star talent.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) Two touchdowns in as many games for Briningstool who now has been targeted at least four times in all but one game this season. I’d expect that streak to continue with a depleted wide receiver group heading into tonight. Excellent matchup as well with South Carolina that has allowed the 15th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Best of the Rest – RBs. We focus on the passing game components with Beaux Collins out of the lineup but should probably just look to what Clemson does best and that’s run the football with Will Shipley and Phil Mafah. I’d suspect Saturday to look very similar to the last few weeks with a 55-45 split in the backfield between the two, with 40+ carries a distinct possibility. South Carolina is 84th in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season and 78th in rush D success rate – very mediocre. WR Troy Stellato ($4,200) has been targeted 24 times in the last four games. QB Cade Klubnik’s ($7,300) 17.8-point projection turns out to be the exact number that South Carolina is allowing per game this season to opposing quarterbacks. The secondary has played better of late, limiting the last three opponents to under 200 yards passing. Should be noted that string of QBs includes Devin Leary, Ken Seals and Zion Webb.
Injury Notes – WR Beaux Collins ($5,000) Out with a foot injury.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Legette ($6,600) Tough to doubt Legette, regardless of the opponent, as the senior receiver is 8th nationally in receiving yards (1,187) and leads the Gamecocks with 65 receptions on 86 targets – almost double the amount of the next closest South Carolina wideout. The trouble is the Clemson secondary is the strength of the defense and the Gamecocks have major protection issues, so I wonder how effective the passing game will be Saturday. Clemson is 22nd in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
Fade – WR O’Mega Blake ($3,600) Just three receivers saw a target last week in a competitive matchup with Kentucky, and Blake, a former starter, ran just 11 routes on 15 offensive snaps. His playing time has declined rapidly in the last month. I’m putting RB Mario Anderson ($5,800) in the fade category as well, as I simply don’t trust South Carolina to get any traction going on the ground against formidable opponents, as evidenced last week with just 32 yards on 12 attempts vs. Kentucky. Clemson is better than the Wildcats at defending the run, and South Carolina is 125th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ahmarean Brown ($4,700) While Clemson has done well vs. opposing wideouts, slot receivers have found some success against the Tigers with LaJohntay Wester and Kevin Concepcion combining for 53 fantasy points. Brown has three or more receptions in his last four games played. WR Nyck Harbor ($3,600) ran the second most routes of any SC receiver last week and has taken the starting spot way from O’Mega Blake on the outside.
Pivot Play –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 13 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.