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Northwestern vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -10
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: MD 27.5 – NW 17.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – WR A.J. Henning ($5,500) or WR Bryce Kirtz ($4,500) When Northwestern drops back to pass, the Wildcats literally throw the ball to just Henning or Kirtz who account for 85 of the 145 targets this season. Maryland allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers among teams playing this weekend. Five different wideouts have scored at least 18 fantasy points against the Terps. There’s an argument to be made to stack both NW receivers in a lineup because of the top-heavy target share.
Fade – RB Cam Porter ($4,800) Maryland is a middle of the road defense across the board and don’t do any one thing particularly well. There’s hesitancy though with rostering Cam Porter who was not on the team’s injury report last week yet played just 23% of the team’s offensive snaps. There’s a surplus of RB options on the slate that it might be wise to not risk playing Porter.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Offense revolves around the QB and two WRs. That’s it.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Lausch ($6,700) Thought this might go sideways for OC Zach Lujan if the Wildcats put up another stinker like they did against Washington in Week 4. But Lausch operated the offense effectively in the loss to Indiana, throwing for 243 yards and a pair of scores. B1G quarterbacks are averaging 23 fantasy points vs. Maryland this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – B1G injury report will come out two hours before game-time. We’ll see if Cam Porter is listed or not.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Tai Felton ($8,500) Felton is officially questionable for Friday, but he’s been practicing this week and HC Mike Locksley expects him to play. Despite missing a chunk of the second half of the Indiana matchup in Week 5, Felton still ranks in the top five nationally in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Northwestern has been dominated by opposing receivers this season, with five wideouts scoring at least 18 fantasy points against them.
Fade – WR Octavian Smith Jr. ($3,400) If we’re basing our interest here on Maryland’s previous game, then we should favor WR Shaleak Knotts ($3,200) as the latter played a season-high 65% of snaps, finishing with three receptions on six targets. Smith was on the field just 31% of the time, which was his lowest output of the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaden Prather ($4,500) Locksley said two of three questionable players were practicing this week – that would be Felton and Prather – and that all three (other being a safety) are expected to play on Friday. Similar to Northwestern, Maryland has a top-heavy target share with Felton and Prather combining for over 52% of the team’s targets.
Pivot Play – QB Billy Edwards ($8,000) Some might view this as a one-QB slate. If you do include a second QB, Edwards would be the top choice. Northwestern is only allowing 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season but are significantly worse at stopping the pass vs. the run, ranking 112th in EPA per pass defensively and 127th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Roman Hemby ($5,400) Conversely, the run defense has been exceptional for the Wildcats, ranked 11th in success rate and yet to allow a running back to score more than 20 fantasy points against them. Hemby had 117 yards last time out against Indiana, but 75 of those came on one run. Volume is also not there from a rushing standpoint, averaging just 12 totes per game.
Injury Notes – Expect Felton and Prather to play.
UNLV vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: UNLV -18.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: UNLV 41.5 – Utah St 23
Weather: 69 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 7 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.
